The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers will square off in a big Game 4 that could give the Lakers a serious advantage. If the Lakers win tonight, they’ll have a two-game lead over the Grizzlies, which will force them to win out to keep their season alive. BetMGM and DraftKings have left too much value on the Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt player prop markets for Game 4 of the Grizzlies-Lakers series. If you’re looking for more plays, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Grizzlies-Lakers Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Rui Hachimura
Rui Hachimura O/U 13.5 Points
One of the early stars of this series, Rui Hachimura has averaged an impressive 21.7 points per game since Game 1. That marks a massive uptick from the 9.6 points per game he averaged for the Los Angeles Lakers in the regular season. While his expanded offensive production has corresponded with some uptick in playing time — Hachimura averaged 22.4 minutes per game on the regular season compared to 28 per game in the postseason — unsustainable efficiency is the biggest explanatory factor.
Hachimura can’t keep shooting like this. He has converted 66.7% of his field goal attempts and 75% of his 3-pointers in the playoffs, significantly higher than the 48.5% and 29.6% he averaged with the Lakers in the regular season. Hachimura has converted only 48% of his field goal attempts and only 34.7% of his 3-pointers across his four-season, 210-game career in the regular season. Let’s bet on some regression in a prime sell high spot.
The shot volume won’t be there much longer for Hachimura. After taking 14 shots in Game 1, he took 12 in Game 2 and 10 in Game 3. He has seen a usage rate of 20% or higher in each of his playoff starts, but his regular-season usage rate sits at only 19.4%. It fell to 17.2% after the All-Star Break. Hachimura has attempted only nine field goals per game against the Grizzlies across nine regular-season starts, good for only 9.8 points per game. He beat this number in only two of those contests.
While it can be fun to back players to keep hot streaks alive in the NBA playoffs, is usually more profitable to bet against them. That’s why the sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle have priced the under for this prop at -136 (57.6%). Public books like BetMGM have the under priced at -125 (55.6), so we’re getting a squeeze of value out of this play there. Readers yet to register at BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance!
Best Grizzlies-Lakers Player Prop: Rui Hachimura Under 13.5 Points -125 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
Grizzlies-Lakers Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Jarred Vanderbilt
Jarred Vanderbilt O/U 1.5 Steals & Blocks
After three games between the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers, it’s clear that head coach Darvin Ham just wants Jarred Vanderbilt out there to make plays on the defensive end. Vanderbilt has taken only 10 shots all series and attempted only one in Game 3. However, he has compiled an impressive four blocks and three steals through that span while playing a meaningful 22 minutes per game. He led the team in box plus-minus in Game 2 and ranked third in Game 3.
Vanderbilt didn’t compile the most impressive resume during this year’s regular season, but his evolving role points to value on this line. He averaged only 0.3 blocks per game on the year and 0.2 after joining the Lakers. He fared much better in the steals column with 1.1 per game on the year and 1.2 per game as a Laker. Vanderbilt has compiled at least two blocks and steals in two of his three starts in this series and in nine of his last 12 starts against the Grizzlies, including one of his two regular-season starts against them with the Lakers.
Because Vanderbilt doesn’t contribute much on the offensive end, it’s easy to forget that he plays a meaningful share of minutes for the Lakers — but we can’t do that against Memphis. The Grizzlies have allowed the sixth-most blocks per game (5.3). Although they have allowed the seventh-fewest steals per game (6.8), power forwards like Vanderbilt still racked up a league-average number of steals for the position (1.3). Some of that like falls on the shoulders of Memphis’ own power forward, Jaren Jackson Jr.
I’m surprised to see this trading in the plus money across the market. Both DraftKings and BetMGM have Vanderbilt at +115 (46.5%) to total at least two steals and blocks. He has gone over this number in 75% of his last 12 starts against the Grizzlies and 66.7% of the games in this series. Let’s trust Vanderbilt to keep making defensive plays against an increasingly desperate Memphis offense. Readers yet to sign up at DraftKings can even get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Grizzlies-Lakers Player Prop: Jarred Vanderbilt Over 1.5 Steals & Blocks +115 for 0.75 Unit at DraftKings
