The Memphis Grizzlies won at home and forced a pivotal Game 6 against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. They must now score a win on the road just to keep their playoff hopes alive. Bettors searching out value on the player prop markets for tonight’s Game 6 should target LeBron James and Austin Reaves. If you’re looking for more Grizzlies-Lakers player props and other sharp plays for Game 6, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Grizzlies-Lakers Warriors Game 6 NBA Player Prop | LeBron James
LeBron James O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The long-range shots haven’t been falling for LeBron James this series, but that hasn’t prevented him from taking them. James is averaging only 1.2 3-pointers per game on 7.2 attempts this series, good for a conversion rate of just 16.7%. However, James averaged 2.4 makes on 6.4 attempts (37.5%) since the All-Star Break and 2.2 makes on 6.9 attempts (32.1%) in the regular season.
Let’s trust James from beyond the arc and hope that he benefits from some regression. James averaged 2.4 3-pointers per game at home in the regular season with a conversion rate of 33.7%. The 0.5 he averaged on a conversion rate of 9.1% in the two home games of this series stands out as a massive outlier and one James should bounce back from — especially since he has been pulling up from deep consistently all series. The shots will fall eventually.
It also makes sense to target James on this market because the Grizzlies have played lackadaisical defense against him on the perimeter. James took 11 uncontested shots in Game 5 and converted only 27.3% of them. While it’s fair to wonder whether James will pivot away from his perimeter shot given his poor performance thus far, the Lakers have lacked 3-point shooting all series, and it’s remained a point of emphasis
The sharp sportsbooks know to expect a solid game from James. At Pinnacle, the over for this NBA player prop costs +108 (48.1%). But we can still find the over at +120 (45.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and with the shot volume still there for him, I have to play this number. The odds of James finally getting his shots to fall are better than a coin toss. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 moneyline wager!
Best Grizzlies-Lakers Player Prop: LeBron James Over 2.5 3-Pointers +120 at DraftKings for 1 Unit
Grizzlies-Lakers Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Austin Reaves
Austin Reaves O/U 16.5 Points
Few players have impressed in this series as much as Austin Reaves. The plucky guard is averaging 17.6 points per game on shooting splits of 45/40/83 through five games. He has gone for 17-plus points in three of his five starts this series, including a pair of 20-plus point showings. However, signs are pointing to a dud performance from him tonight. Over the last two games, Reaves’ shooting splits have ticked down slightly to 38/39/93 as he faces tougher defensive opposition.
Turnovers have become an issue for Reaves in the last two games. He coughed the ball up three times in Game 4 and four times in Game 5. Although he still finished both contests with a positive box plus-minus grade, similar struggles could see his minutes cut in favor of less turnover-prone teammates, especially with the Lakers needing to win this one to prevent the series from heading back to Memphis.
Reaves’ regular-season numbers also point to regression as a possibility tonight. He averaged 17.6 points per game after the All-Star Break, portions of which he spent without Anthony Davis or LeBron James. While Reaves has excelled when thrust into a starting role, he averaged only 15.1 points per game as a starter in the regular season. His strong numbers in recent games have caused this total to balloon, and bettors can scrape together some value on the under.
It’s not just me who recommends fading Austin Reaves tonight. Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has his under priced at -132 (56.9%). However, bettors can find the under priced at only -105 (51.2%) at BetMGM. Let’s take advantage of this mispriced prop by playing it for a full unit. Readers yet to register at BetMGM can even get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000!
Best Grizzlies-Lakers Player Prop: Austin Reaves Under 16.5 Points -105 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
