The Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks will face off in a pivotal Game 5. The Hawks scored an upset home win in Game 3 but promptly lost in Game 4. Atlanta can bring the series back home with another win, but the atmosphere in TD Garden may prove too inhospitable. DraftKings Sportsbook has left too much value on the Trae Young and Marcus Smart player prop markets for Game 5 of the Hawks-Celtics series. If you’re looking for more plays, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Hawks-Celtics Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Trae Young
Trae Young O/U 4.5 Turnovers
The Atlanta Hawks won’t have Dejounte Murray on Tuesday evening. The star guard has been suspended for making physical contact with an NBA official after Sunday’s loss to the Boston Celtics. That leaves Trae Young as the lone viable ball handler in Atlanta’s backcourt, which will cause problems for him in the turnover department. Young is already averaging 3.8 turnovers per game this series, so Murray’s absence doesn’t have to move the needle that much for there to be value on the over.
Young played six games without Murray this year, and his underperformance in those contests speaks volumes. He averaged an impressive 26.8 points per game but a miserable 5.3 turnovers, beating this number in four of the eight contests. Atlanta’s offense will now operate much more like last year’s squad, and Young averaged 4.3 turnovers per game against the Celtics in that campaign.
Even a cursory look at the tracking stats reveals how much value exists on this line. Young is averaging 84.8 touches per game this series, the most on Atlanta’s roster and ahead of Murray, who is averaging a still-massive 78.3. Young averaged only 80.3 touches per game in the regular season and still turned the ball over 4.1 times per game. Young averaged 89.2 touches per game in the regular-season games that Murray and is likely to draw even more usage in Tuesday’s must-win game.
I’m surprised the books re-opened this market at even odds. Young is averaging five turnovers per game in the TD Garden since entering the association and went over this number in six of those nine contests, including the first two games of this playoff series. Now he has a do-or-die game without his backcourt partner. Let’s fade him in the turnover column at +100 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers yet to sign up for DraftKings can even get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Hawks-Celtics Player Prop: Trae Young Over 4.5 Turnovers +100 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Hawks-Celtics Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Marcus Smart
Marcus Smart O/U 3.5 Rebounds
The books continue to underrate Marcus Smart as a rebounder. He has averaged 4.8 rebounds per game during this series and has beaten this number in all but one of his appearances. His playoff rebound rate of 7.9% is up from the 5.3% he recorded in the regular season. Smart has recorded a playoff rebound rate at least a percentage point higher than the number he posted in the regular season in each of the last four seasons. Further, he has averaged 4.4 rebounds per game across his 92 playoff appearances.
The Dejounte Murray suspension should benefit Smart on the glass. He has a size advantage against his primary defender, Trae Young, who will have to focus almost exclusively on scoring. More importantly, the Hawks have a 1.9% worse rebound rate when Murray sits and a 5.7% better rebound rate when Young sits in this series. With Murray out, Young will have to play longer stretches, which should open up more opportunities for the Celtics on the glass.
The recent trends also point to value here. Smart has recorded at least four rebounds in five of his last eight games against Young while averaging 4.8 of them per game. Smart has also averaged 5.1 rebounds per game over his last 15 playoff appearances, a trend that dates back to last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, while beating this number in 12 of those 15 games. The books keep betting on regression from Smart, but they haven’t accepted the difference between his regular-season rebounding and postseason rebounding.
With Murray suspended, the Atlanta Hawks are in a desperate position. Let’s bet on the Celtics to capitalize on their misfortune by backing Marcus Smart to have a solid day on the glass. Although the blowout potential makes targeting any of Boston’s starters risky, especially since the Philadelphia 76ers have already secured some extra time off, I don’t expect the Celtics to get too cute on Tuesday.
Best Hawks-Celtics Player Prop: Marcus Smart Over 3.5 Rebounds +110 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
