The Miami Heat barely made it into the playoffs, but their comeback win over the Chicago Bulls in the NBA Play-In Tournament was good enough for the eighth seed. They’ll now face the Milwaukee Bucks, and FanDuel and DraftKings have left too much value on the Grayson Allen and Bam Adebayo player prop markets for Game 1 of the Heat-Bucks series. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Heat-Bucks Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Grayson Allen
Grayson Allen O/U 8.5 Points
The Miami Heat will have to find a way to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo on Sunday. They lined up against him for a full game just once this season, and the Greek Freak went ballistic for 35 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists. He left plenty of points on the board by going only 9-for-16 from the charity stripe as well. Whatever the Heat do to stop Giannis is likely to benefit Milwaukee’s ancillary pieces, especially Grayson Allen.
Allen likely isn’t the first player that comes to mind when running through the offensive threats Miami will have to handle in Game 1. However, he lined up against the Heat three times this season and averaged an impressive 15.7 points per game on 50% from the floor and 52.4% from beyond the arc. His best performance, a 19-point showing on 63.6% from the floor, came in the lone game Antetokounmpo played to completion.
Although the Bucks may change up their rotation throughout the playoffs, Allen should remain in the mix as a valuable perimeter threat. His presence in the starting lineup alongside Antetokounmpo makes him a sharper play than some of Milwaukee’s other weapons, as the Heat will likely collapse in on defense to stop the Greek Freak down low, creating opportunities for Allen on the perimeter. Let’s tease this up by a point and play the 10+ at +130 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register there can score $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager!
Best Heat-Bucks Player Prop: Grayson Allen 10+ Points +130 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Heat-Bucks Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo O/U 3.5 Assists
Not many bettors turn to Bam Adebayo in the assist column. But with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor, it makes loads of sense. Adebayo is averaging 4.6 assists per game against Antetokounmpo over 17 starts. He recorded a season-high eight assists in the lone game Antetokounmpo played to completion against the Miami Heat, three of which came in the game’s first six minutes. I expect more of the same from Adebayo on Sunday.
The Bucks allowed opposing big men to dish out plenty of assists this year. They ended the regular season ranked seventh-worst in assists allowed per game to centers (4.2) and worst over the season’s final 30 games (5.1). Milwaukee allowed Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid to dish out five assists in Antetokounmpo’s penultimate regular-season start. Boston’s Al Horford dished out three in the game immediately prior to that one.
The Bucks may play tough defense, but I’m still surprised to see the over for this Heat-Bucks player prop sitting so far into the plus money. Adebayo has beaten this number in 70.5% of his regular-season starts against the Greek Freak and in 66.7% of their postseason meetings, including all four of their 2021 series. Let’s lock the over in at +130 (43.4%) via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Heat-Bucks Player Prop: Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 Assists +130 for 0.75 Unit at DraftKings
