The Miami Heat stole Game 1 of their series with the Milwaukee Bucks, and now both teams have some injury issues to manage. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out with a right-hand fracture, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful with a back injury. Fortunately, FanDuel and DraftKings have left plenty of value on the Gabe Vincent and Jrue Holiday player prop markets for Game 2 of the Heat-Bucks series. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Heat-Bucks Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Gabe Vincent
Gabe Vincent O/U 9.5 Points
The injury to Tyler Herro is devastating to the Miami Heat. The Heat already lacked high-upside scorers, as neither Jimmy Butler nor Bam Adebayo contribute much from the perimeter. Miami will instead turn to a cast of backcourt players that includes Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. Of those four, Vincent stands out as the best target on the betting markets.
Vincent has faced the Bucks with Butler and Adebayo but without Herro twice this season. He scored 28 points on 10-for-17 from the field and 5-for-11 from beyond the arc in their first meeting. He then scored 27 points on 11-for-14 from the field and 5-for-8 from deep in their next meeting. Milwaukee’s superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, also missed those games. That suggests head coach Mike Budenholzer is content to let Vincent shoot when he has limited defensive personnel available.
So what kind of production should bettors expect from Vincent tonight? Bettors can tease him up to score 15-plus points at +370 (21.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Vincent has reached the 15-point mark in four of his 19 playoff appearances since last year (21%), including Game 1 of this series. He also reached it in 16 of his 68 regular-season appearances this year (23.5%) and in seven of his 12 games without Herro (58.3%).
Still, backing Vincent to cross the 10-point threshold is a much safer play. Backing him to score 10-plus points at -120 (54.5%) via FanDuel is a much more realistic prediction. Vincent cleared that number in 10 of his 12 games without Herro (83.3%) this season. The Heat or Bucks may make significant adjustments rendering Vincent’s usage much less predictable, so let’s keep most of our action on the lower number. Follow the unit structure below to maximize your value here.
Best Heat-Bucks Player Prop: Gabe Vincent 10+ Points -120 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Best Heat-Bucks Player Prop: Gabe Vincent 15+ Points +370 for 0.25 Unit at FanDuel
Heat-Bucks Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Jrue Holiday
Jrue Holiday O/U 3.5 Turnovers
If Giannis Antetokounmpo can’t go, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday will have to step up as offensive initiators. That bodes poorly for them both against a defense as aggressive as Miami’s. The Heat have forced the fourth-most turnovers per game from their opponents this year (15.6). They even average more turnovers forced in away games (16) than at home (15.2). Holiday managed to turn the ball over only once in Game 1, so we’re even getting this prop at a great price.
In 11 regular-season games without Antetokounmpo this season, Holiday averaged 3.9 turnovers per game. He coughed the ball up at least four times in six of those contests (54.5%). This sample includes two games against the Heat in which Holiday turned the ball over three and five times. Holiday has averaged three turnovers per game against Jimmy Butler across 21 career regular-season meetings.
The logic behind this play is that the Bucks will rely upon Holiday as a ball handler in Game 2. That’s what they did in the parts of Game 1 that Antetokounmpo missed — Holiday totaled a whopping 90 touches, higher than anyone else on the team, and 68 passes. While 16 of those passes resulted in assists and none in steals, that will likely change on Wednesday night. The Heat deflected only 10 balls in Game 1 despite averaging 14.8 deflections per game in the regular season.
Although the total for this Heat-Bucks player prop is quite high (3.5), the juice on the over is quite friendly at +130 (43.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Holiday went over this number at a much higher clip than that when Antetokounmpo sat this season (54.5%), so we’re getting a healthy amount of edge. Still, let’s not break the bank in case Antetokounmpo plays through his doubtful designation — I’m limiting myself to a three-quarter unit wager. Readers yet to register for DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Heat-Bucks Player Prop: Jrue Holiday Jr. Over 3.5 Turnovers +130 for 0.75 Unit at DraftKings
