The Miami Heat earned a stunning Game 4 win over the Milwaukee Bucks to take a 3-1 series lead. Star forward Jimmy Butler led the way with 56 points. With Milwaukee on the brink of elimination in Game 5, FanDuel has left a squeeze too much value on the player props for two of Miami’s players, Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent. If you’re looking for more Heat-Bucks player props and other sharp plays, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Heat-Bucks Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler O/U 35.5 Points & Rebounds
Square bettors chase greatness. Sharp ones fade it. Jimmy Butler put together a historic 56-point performance against the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 4. He also came down with nine boards for a total of 65 points and rebounds. But heading into Game 4, Butler had beaten this number only once all series. He recorded 40 points and rebounds in Game 1, 28 in Game 2 and 35 in Game 4.
Since joining the Heat, Butler has lined up against Giannis Antetokounmpo 15 times. He has averaged 23.3 points and 5.7 rebounds in those games, good for only 29 total. The two players have met in the playoffs 10 times, and although Butler’s averages ticked up to 24.9 and 6.3 in those games, they’re still only good for 31.2 total. While Antetokounmpo clearly isn’t playing at full strength, the Bucks still have a litany of other respected defenders to contest Butler’s shots and rebounds.
We’re playing the under because Butler’s shooting should regress to the mean. He recorded shooting splits of 68-38-83 in Game 4, up considerably from the 60-67-67 he had been averaging coming into the game — and from the 54-35-85 he averaged in the regular season. Butler even shot only 52-33-87 after one day of rest in the regular season. Although Butler has usually exceeded expectations in the playoffs, his career playoff shooting splits with the Heat of 50-38-83 suggest Game 4 was a huge outlier.
Playoff Jimmy Butler could torch this number, but it’s unlikely, especially with the numbers that the sharp sportsbooks have already posted. At Pinnacle, Butler sits at -129 (56.3%) to stay under his points prop of 29.5 and at -162 (61.8%) to stay under his rebounds prop of 6.5. Public books have opened their markets with a larger slant toward the over in hopes of attracting bettors eager to chase Butler’s big game. Let’s play this under at -108 (51.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Heat-Bucks Player Prop: Jimmy Butler Under 35.5 Points & Rebounds -108 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Heat-Bucks Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Gabe Vincent
Gabe Vincent O/U 10.5 Points
Although those who tailed the Game 4 column didn’t cash any of our tickets on Gabe Vincent, the shots were there for him. Vincent took 13 shots, the third-most of anyone on the Heat, but converted only four of them. Still, his four makes tied him for the third-most made shots on the roster, and he finished with 10 points. With both Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out of the lineup, expect Vincent to keep playing a sizeable role on offense.
I’ve harped on Vincent’s solid resume against the Bucks before, and I will happily do so again. Vincent is averaging 10.8 points per game this series. He averaged 16 points per game against them in the regular season, including a pair of games with 25-plus points. The Bucks were content to leave Joe Ingles or Grayson Allen on Vincent in Game 4, and if they make that mistake again, Vincent’s shots should fall this time.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra is unlikely to move away from Vincent in Game 5. Vincent still played a whopping 29 minutes in Game 4 despite recording a team-worst box plus-minus and five turnovers. Spo likely let Vincent stay in because of his passing ability, as Vincent led the Heat in assists with eight, something few remaining members of the team’s rotation can do as effectively. Kyle Lowry stands out as the primary threat to Vincent’s minutes, but if Game 5 devolves into the blowout that the sportsbooks anticipate, don’t expect Spo to leave the 37-year-old veteran in for very long.
Vincent soared over this number in both of the series’ previous games in Milwaukee. He did so regardless of the game script — he scored 15 in Miami’s 13-point Game 1 win and 16 in Miami’s 16-point Game 2 loss. We can still buy the over at -111 via FanDuel Sportsbook, which is a solid deal relative to the -121 that Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has made available. Readers yet to sign up for FanDuel can score $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Heat-Bucks Player Prop: Gabe Vincent Over 10.5 Points -111 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
