The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will meet in another Eastern Conference Finals matchup — a rematch of the one that took place in the bubble three years ago and in last year’s playoffs. If want to tail some sharp NBA player prop bets, target Al Horford and Bam Adebayo. Need more Heat-Celtics player props for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Heat-Celtics Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo O/U 17.5 Points
It’s time to buy low on Bam Adebayo. Consecutive series against teams that are known for controlling the paint, the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks, have left Adebayo averaging only 18.1 points per game in the playoffs, down from the 20.4 he averaged in the regular season. But Adebayo’s poor production in those series wasn’t unexpected — he averaged only 18.5 points per regular-season game against the Knicks and 19.5 against the Bucks, both below-average numbers.
Adebayo’s regular-season production against the Celtics and on the road points to value here. He averaged 25 points per game against Boston across four starts and scored no fewer than 19 points. His two starts in the TD Garden yielded 28 and 23 points. Adebayo also averaged 20.7 points per game on the road in the regular season, up from the 20.1 he averaged at home. Although Adebayo’s production dipped after the All-Star Break, Miami’s loss of Tyler Herro in the opening round should thrust Adebayo into a higher-usage role in this friendlier matchup.
The sharp books know to expect bigger things from Adebayo in this series. Pinnacle has opened the bidding on the over at -128, a slightly worse price than the -122 at FanDuel Sportsbook. But I’m not satisfied with that number. Instead, I recommend that you tease it up to 18.5 — a number Adebayo still cleared in each of his regular-season starts against the Celtics — and lock in the price of +102. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Heat-Celtics Player Prop: Bam Adebayo Over 18.5 Points +102 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Heat-Celtics Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Al Horford
Al Horford O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
This is the perfect spot for contrarian bettors to buy low on Al Horford as a perimeter shooter. Horford has struggled mightily from beyond the arc in the postseason and is averaging only 1.5 3-pointers per game on a conversion rate of 30.8%. However, he averaged 2.3 3-pointers per game on a conversion rate of 44.6% in the regular season. I expect some positive regression from him here, especially as the Celtics get ready to play a faster-paced series against the Miami Heat.
Two matchup-based factors make me absolutely love this spot for Horford. First, the Heat have allowed the third-most corner 3’s per game of all playoff teams at 4.6. Their struggles to stop corner shooters date back to the regular season — they allowed the most corner 3’s per game at 4.3. Horford leads the Celtics in corner 3’s attempted per game (1.9). Second, Horford’s production against the Heat speaks to value as well. He averaged 2.5 3-pointers per game against them and converted 46.2% of his attempts.
If you’re still not sold on trusting Horford in Game 1, let me phrase my reasoning in another way. Horford sunk at least two 3-point shots in 43 of his 63 regular-season appearances (68.3%). He has done so in 50 of his 76 total appearances (65.7%) as well, yet we can buy the over at -140 (58.3%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s why Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this over priced at only -154 (60.6%). If you’re feeling lucky, wager enough to win a half-unit and put the rest of your unit on the 3+ at +270.
Best Heat-Celtics Player Prop: Al Horford 2+ 3-Pointers -140 for 0.7 Units FanDuel
