Derrick White delivered with the tip-in, helping the Boston Celtics drag this series to a Game 7. This game should be just as thrilling, and we’re honing in on Jayson Tatum and Caleb Martin on the player prop markets for Monday. Want more Celtics-Heat player props for Game 7? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder! You can also get access to my full NBA betting cards, in addition to any live bets, via OddsShopper Insider Access.
Heat-Celtics Game 7 NBA Player Prop | Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
This is a profoundly low bar for Jayson Tatum in an elimination game. Tatum is averaging only 1.7 3-pointers per game this series, but his conversion rate of 23.3% is unsustainably low. Tatum was averaging 3.2 3-pointers per game on 35.9% in the postseason heading into this series. He averaged 3.2 per game on 35% in the regular season and 3 on 38.7% against the Heat. Tatum has beaten this number in 12 of his 19 playoff starts (63.2%) and in 44 of his 74 regular-season appearances (59.5%).
Aside from regression, two factors make me love the over here. First, Tatum was more comfortable from beyond the arc when playing at home in the regular season. He averaged 3.3 3-pointers per game here on 36%. Tatum even hit a season-high eight 3-pointers in his first home game against the Heat and averaged 4 3-pointers per game on 42.1% across their two meetings in Boston. Second, Tatum has played 40-plus minutes in all of Boston’s elimination games. He averaged 3.6 3-pointers per game when crossing the 40-minute threshold in the regular season.
Let’s lock in the over for this one at DraftKings, which has the number set to only -150 (60%). While it makes sense to respect Miami’s gritty defense in this spot, the volume has been there for Tatum all series, as he is averaging 7.2 3-point attempts per game. At his regular-season home conversion rate, that would be good for 2.6 3-pointers. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Heat-Celtics Player Prop: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers -150 for 0.75 Units at DraftKings
Heat-Celtics Game 7 NBA Player Prop | Caleb Martin
Caleb Martin O/U 15.5 Points
The Caleb Martin player prop markets have gotten out of control. Sure, Martin is averaging 18.2 points per game this series. He has done so on shooting splits of 58-46-88, far above what he had been shooting coming into this series (53-39-80) and in the regular season (46-36-81). Martin was producing just 10.8 points per playoff game before this series started and averaged 9.6 points per game in the regular season.
The home-away splits point to value here. Martin has beaten this number in four of his six appearances this series, but both misses came in Boston. Martin’s two best playoff games in the scoring column have come on the road, but he has stayed under this number in seven of his nine road games. Martin averaged 10 points per game in TD Garden during the regular season on shooting splits of 44-38-50.
We’re getting exposure on the under for more than just Martin’s averages and splits. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced at -139, but we can buy it at -113 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s lock this one in before the line moves. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Heat-Celtics Player Prop: Caleb Martin Under 15.5 Points -113 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
