The NBA playoffs have almost arrived, but before we get to them, we have the NBA Play-In Tournament games to handicap. Action will get underway Tuesday night with a battle between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat for the right to face the Boston Celtics. A few Hawks-Heat player props stand out for the play-in game — DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Trae Young and Jimmy Butler player prop markets, respectively. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Best Hawks-Heat Play-In Game NBA Player Prop | Trae Young
Trae Young O/U 4.5 Turnovers
The Trae Young-led Atlanta Hawks are not clutch. The Hawks rank 29th in clutch net rating this year (-15.9) and 25th since the All-Star Break (-22.4). Worse, 15.5% of their clutch possessions since the pause have ended in a turnover. Young accounts for a whopping 43.9% of Atlanta’s clutch turnovers when he is on the floor. He’ll now face the Heat, who have forced turnovers at the third-highest rate in the clutch this year.
Even a more superficial look at the numbers points to some value on this line. Young averaged 4.1 turnovers per game in the regular season and 5.3 against the Miami Heat. He turned the ball over at least five times in all but one of his playoff games against the Heat last season while averaging 6.2 per game. He has averaged 5.4 turnovers per regular season game against the Heat throughout his career.
The books should probably have set the number for this prop at 5.5 with the juice slightly favoring the under. However, because they’ve set this market to 4.5 with the juice biased in neither direction, bettors can find an edge on the over. The Hawks are likely to feature Young for 40-plus minutes, and Young averaged 4.7 turnovers per game when playing that kind of workload in the regular season. Mix in Miami’s talented defense, which forced the third-most turnovers per game from point guards this year, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
Best Hawks-Heat Player Prop: Trae Young Over 4.5 Turnovers -115 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Best Hawks-Heat Play-In Game NBA Player Prop | Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler O/U 1.5 Steals
If we’re fading Trae Young in the turnover column, we’re also going to back Jimmy Butler in the steals column. Butler is averaging 1.7 steals per game over 12 career regular-season games against Young. When counting playoff games, that rate jumps to 1.9. Butler swiped at least two balls in the four playoff contests he played against the Hawks last year. He lined up against the Hawks twice this season and finished with at least two steals twice.
The Heat should ask Butler to play plenty of minutes as Miami looks to lock up a playoff berth. A playoff-like workload is likely in the cards for him, and the extra minutes should help him find a way to go over this number. The Hawks have allowed the 13th-most steals per game (7.5) and the seventh-most to power forwards (1.4), where Butler spent 41% of his minutes this year.
Bettors looking to take advantage of this Hawks-Heat player prop for their play-in game should head to FanDuel Sportsbook. Although every other book has the over priced below even, FanDuel is selling it all the way up at +102. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can score a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000 by registering via this link!
Best Hawks-Heat Player Prop: Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 Steals +102 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
