Just as we all expected, the two teams with a chance to close out their second-round playoff series in Game 5 came out of the play-in tournament. The Miami Heat can eliminate the New York Knicks with a road win on Wednesday. In this do-or-die Game 5, bettors looking for sharp NBA Heat-Knicks player prop bets should target Jalen Brunson and Mitchell Robinson. Need more Suns-Nuggets player props? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Heat-Knicks Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Mitchell Robinson
Mitchell Robinson O/U 15.5 Points & Rebounds
We faded Mitchell Robinson in Games 3 and 4, and he delivered by staying under this number in both games. Oddly, FanDuel Sportsbook has increased Robinson’s total for points and rebounds from 14.5 to 15.5 after Game 4, which is where most other books have the total for his points, rebounds and assists (PRA). Other books that have opened the bidding on Robinson’s points and rebounds almost all have the total set to 14.5.
This isn’t just a market-based play — the Miami Heat have routinely played Robinson off the floor this series. Since Julius Randle returned to the starting lineup in Game 2, Robinson is averaging only 22.7 minutes, 4.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Robinson averaged only 25.7 minutes, 4.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game against the Heat in the regular season, so his downtick in production isn’t that surprising. Robinson has gone over this number in just six of his 17 career games against the Heat.
This is a must-win game for Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks, and I just can’t see him leaving Robinson on the floor all that much come Wednesday night. He wasn’t in the closing unit in Game 3. He recorded just one rebound and one assist in the fourth quarter of Game 4 despite playing eight minutes. That lone rebound came after Randle fouled out with three minutes left. You can argue he adds value as a defender and on the glass, but Thibodeau resorted to hiding Robinson on Kevin Love in Games 3 and 4 after his minutes against Bam Adebayo went terribly.
Best Heat-Knicks Player Prop: Mitchell Robinson Under 15.5 Points & Rebounds -125 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Heat-Knicks Game 5 NBA Player Prop | player
Jalen Brunson O/U 25.5 Points
Much has been made about Jimmy Butler as a clutch player, especially in the playoffs, but not enough has been said about Brunson. Brunson averaged 32.7 points per 36 minutes in the clutch during the regular season, slightly behind Butler (34.2). That number has jumped to 54 in the playoffs, still slightly behind Butler (57.6) but impressively close to his production. With a do-or-die home Game 5 on tap, expect Brunson to come out swinging.
The Miami Heat haven’t concentrated much on stopping Brunson in the playoffs. His primary defender in Games 3 and 4, Gabe Vincent, is a solid but not spectacular defender. Vincent has played slightly worse than breakeven defense thus far in the playoffs and did the same in the regular season. The results of Miami’s approach have shown up in the box score: Brunson is averaging 26.8 points per game on shooting splits of 46/28/92. If Brunson can replicate the 49/42/83 he shot in the regular season in Game 5, the Heat are in trouble.
The final reason to target this prop: Brunson’s home-away splits. He averaged 24.5 points per game at home in the regular season, a full point more than what he averaged on the road. He is also averaging 26.3 points per game at home in the playoffs, 1.9 points more than what he is averaging on the road. Let’s back him to beat a fair number at near-even odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re yet to register at DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets by winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Heat-Knicks Player Prop: Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points -105 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
