The Denver Nuggets set the tone for this series with their commanding Game 1 win at home. The Miami Heat had managed to steal Game 1 on the road in each of their prior series and are trailing in a playoff series for the first time this postseason. As we did in Game 1, let’s attack Bam Adebayo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on the NBA player prop markets. Want more Heat-Nuggets player props for Game 2 of the NBA Finals? Well…
You can always check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder! You can also get access to my full NBA betting cards, in addition to any live bets, via OddsShopper Insider Access.
Heat-Nuggets Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo O/U 18.5 Points
If you tailed this column in Game 1, you locked in Adebayo over 16.5 points at -105. He racked up a whopping 26 in the opening contest on 13-for-25 from the floor while playing 40 minutes. While the Heat should get a bit more support from their role players in Game 2, the current number for this prop is still too low. Adebayo averaged 20.4 points per game in the regular season. While that number has dipped to 17.3 in the playoffs, Adebayo had to face some of the NBA’s best interior defenses.
As I stated before Game 1, Denver doesn’t care about stuffing the paint. The Nuggets have allowed 48 points in the paint per game this postseason. They allowed 52.5 points per game in the regular season, which ranked 21st. Instead of stifling opposing offenses with shot-blockers, the Nuggets prefer to shut down the perimeter and outscore you. Leaving Adebayo open for a few layups and dunks doesn’t matter if you can hit an open three on the next possession.
The sharp books have already started to adjust more substantially than the public ones. Pinnacle, one such sharp book, has the over for this prop priced at -121. We can still find this available at -105 via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager! Likewise, if you’re yet to get in the game at BetMGM, you can get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000. Lock in this play for Adebayo at either site.
Best Heat-Nuggets Player Prop: Bam Adebayo Over 18.5 Points -105 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Heat-Nuggets Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope O/U 9.5 Points
Although Kentavious Caldwell-Pope let us down in Game 1 with a relatively quiet performance, he won’t stay quiet for long. Caldwell-Pope played 36 minutes and drew coverage from Max Strus and Kyle Lowry, neither of whom are great defenders. The Heat could opt to hide Tyler Herro on him in Game 2 if he is available as well. Aaron Gordon stole the show among Denver’s role players with 16 points in Game 1, but I think it’s KCP’s turn in Game 2.
For KCP not to go over this prop, something we’re yet to see in the postseason would have to take place: Caldwell-Pope would have to go multiple games without at least reaching double figures. KCP has followed each of his single-digit scoring performances with at least 10 points in the playoffs. He is also averaging 11.1 points per game at home in the playoffs and has scored in double-figures in six of his nine home starts. His solid home playoff performances line up with his regular-season splits — KCP averaged 11.1 points per game at home then, too.
As with the above Adebayo prop, the sharp books know a bit better than the public ones. Pinnacle has the over for this prop priced at at -136, but we can find the -130 (56.5%) at DraftKings. While that isn’t a ton of edge, we’re getting a better price than Caldwell-Pope’s hit rate at home this postseason (66.7%). Lock this one in at DraftKings before the value disappears!
Best Heat-Nuggets Player Prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 9.5 Points -130 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
