The Miami Heat did it again. They found a way to steal a game on the road, tying this series back up at one game apiece. They’ll now return to their home floor with a chance to take the series lead. Let’s attack Kevin Love and Michael Porter Jr. on the NBA player prop markets. Want more Nuggets-Heat player props for Game 3 of the NBA Finals? Well…
You can always check out OddsShopper’s market-based model for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder! You can also get access to my full NBA betting cards, in addition to any live bets, via OddsShopper Insider Access.
Nuggets-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Kevin Love
Kevin Love O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
Although Kevin Love isn’t one of the most exciting options on the player prop market, his odds should stand out to sharp bettors. Love finally got re-inserted into the starting lineup for Game 2 and proceeded to shoot 2-for-6 from beyond the arc in 22 minutes. Both the shot volume and playtime were there, and Love drew primary coverage from Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray — not exactly the best perimeter defenders.
Love’s minutes have fluctuated all throughout the playoffs, but he is still averaging 18.3 minutes, 1.6 made 3-pointers and 4.4 attempted 3-pointers per game. He has made at least a pair of 3-pointers in 19 of his 17 playoff appearances (58.8%) on a conversion rate of 36.5%. This roughly alines with what Love accomplished in 21 regular-season games with the Heat, through which he averaged 19.9 minutes, 1.4 made 3-pointers and 4.8 attempted 3-pointers on a conversion rate of 29.7%.
Again, this play comes down to the odds. The total of 1.5 is fair, but we can buy the over at the ridiculous price of +170 (37%) at BetMGM. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging +138 (42%), so we’re getting a ton of edge relative to the market. Unsurprisingly, this play is also popping up in OddsShopper’s market-based model. If you’re yet to get in the game at BetMGM, you can get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000.
Best Nuggets-Heat Player Prop: Kevin Love Over 1.5 3-Pointers +170 for 0.5 Units at BetMGM
Nuggets-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Michael Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr. O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The Miami Heat have contained Michael Porter Jr. thus far. He shot 2-for-11 from the perimeter in Game 1 before shooting 1-for-6 in Game 2. While the drop in hot volume is concerning, MPJ also played only 26 minutes as Mike Malone tried to get better-performing players on the floor, like Bruce Brown. Sharp bettors know that just because we got a dud game from MPJ in Game 2 doesn’t mean he won’t see big minutes in Game 3.
Porter entered this series averaging 33.8 minutes, 2.8 made 3-pointers and 6.9 attempted 3-pointers per game, good for a conversion rate of 40.8%. He averaged 29, 3, and 7.3 in the regular season, respectively, and made 41.4% of his perimeter shots. In his lone trip to South Beach, Porter shot an impressive 5-for-13 (38.5%) from beyond the arc. I expect him to bounce back tonight, especially since he is currently 3-for-14 when taking uncontested shots so far in this series.
Again, this play also comes down to some market-based factors. Michael Porter Jr. sits at -130 (56.5%) to go over this number at Pinnacle, but because the public books know their target audience suffers from significant recency bias, we can buy the over at -110 (52.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Just make sure to play it on the 3+ made 3-pointers market, not the standard one, where this play costs -113 (53.1%). Yet to register at FanDuel? Get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000 when you sign up!
Best Nuggets-Heat Player Prop: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 3-Pointers -110 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
