The Denver Nuggets scored a much-needed road victory in Game 3, which gives them a chance to bring the series back home with a two-game lead. The Miami Heat won’t go down easy, though, and we’re attacking Jimmy Butler and Michael Porter Jr. on the NBA player prop markets at FanDuel Sportsbook. Want more Nuggets-Heat player props for Game 4 of the NBA Finals? Well…
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Nuggets-Heat Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Michael Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr. O/U 10.5 Points
The Denver Nuggets have leaned on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as scorers so far this series. Their production has come at the expense of Denver’s role players, especially Michael Porter Jr., who has gone over this number just once all series. However, it’s a great time to buy the dip, especially because of how significant the dip was. The books set Porter’s prop total at 14.5 for Game 3, so we’re getting this at a four-point discount.
It’s easy to be worried about Porter after he played only 21 minutes, but let’s not forget what he did in the regular season and earlier in the playoffs. Porter averaged 17.4 points per game across 62 regular-season starts. He averaged 14.6 points per game across 15 postseason starts before this series began. Even if we factor in this series, Porter is still averaging 13.3 points per playoff game. Porter scored at least 11 points in 53 (85.4%) of his regular-season appearances and in 13 (72.2%) of his playoff appearances.
Games 2 and 3 marked the first consecutive games Porter finished with single-digit scoring since the end of the 2020-21 season. Head coach Mike Malone pulled Porter early in that game, and he followed it by scoring 25 in his next outing. The shot volume has been there for Porter, he is just shooting 25.8% from the field this series. That number is unsustainably low, and a bounce-back game is coming. Let’s buy the dip at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you haven’t registered there yet, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000 when you sign up!
Best Nuggets-Heat Player Prop: Michael Porter Jr. Over 10.5 Points -104 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Nuggets-Heat Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler O/U 1.5 Steals
Let’s target another market overcorrection with this NBA Finals player prop for Jimmy Butler. Coming into this series, Butler was averaging 2.1 steals per game in the postseason. He averaged 1.8 per game in the regular season as well. Butler has recorded at least two steals in 12 (60%) of his playoff starts this year and did so in 34 (53.1%) of his regular-season starts. Butler has just one steal in all of this series.
Although Denver excels at not turning the ball over, the Miami Heat have still found ways to harass them. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic combined for 10 turnovers in Game 3, seven of which were logged as steals. Butler is averaging 2.3 deflected balls per game this series. As a team, the Heat are averaging 16.3 deflected balls per game, yet Butler has recovered only one loose ball on defense. He is averaging 0.7 loose balls recovered per game for the full postseason.
In what’s essentially a must-win home game to avoid a 3-1 deficit heading back to Denver, expect Butler to pick up his already high defensive intensity. That should lead to a few more deflections — he just needs to get lucky and recover them. The over was trading at or around -150 (60%) for Games 2 and 3, but we can now find the +100 (50%) at FanDuel because of Butler’s recent struggles to recover loose balls. That’s a great deal relative to Butler’s regular-season and postseason hit rates.
Best Nuggets-Heat Player Prop: Jimmy Butler 2+ Steals +100 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
