The Denver Nuggets have a shot to lock up the NBA title in Game 5, and they’ll have a chance to do so in any subsequent finals contests. Will the Miami Heat force a Game 6? I’m not sure, but we’re attacking Aaron Gordon and Caleb Martin on the NBA player prop markets at FanDuel Sportsbook. Want more Heat-Nuggets player props for Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Well…
You can always check out OddsShopper’s market-based model for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder! You can also get access to my full NBA betting cards, in addition to any live bets, via OddsShopper Insider Access.
Heat-Nuggets Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon O/U 13.5 Points
The Denver Nuggets got a monstrous performance out of Aaron Gordon in Game 4. The veteran big man shot 11-for-15 from the field, including 3-for-4 from beyond the arc on his way to a playoff-high 27 points. Gordon was routinely left open from beyond the arc, and he punished the Heat for that defensive choice. However, we’re going to fade Gordon here because he is shooting an unbelievably unsustainable 66.7% this series.
This series will head back to Denver for Game 5, which actually bodes poorly for Gordon. He averaged only 14.9 points per game in Ball Arena during the regular season while shooting 53.9% from the field and 29.1% from beyond the arc. Gordon has recorded 14 or more points in only four of his 10 home playoff starts. He racked up only 11 points in his lone home start against the Heat in the regular season.
This is an excellent spot to sell high on Gordon as squares chase his big Game 4. The home-away splits strongly favor the under, so let’s lock this one in at FanDuel Sportsbook. The under 13.5 will cost you -127 at Pinnacle, a sharp book, and -125 at DraftKings. However, we can lock in this NBA player prop at a far more reasonable price of -115 via FanDuel. If you haven’t registered at there yet, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500 when you sign up!
Best Heat-Nuggets Player Prop: Aaron Gordon Under 13.5 Points -115 for 1 Unit FanDuel
Heat-Nuggets Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Caleb Martin
Caleb Martin O/U 9.5 Points
This NBA player prop may no longer be on the board by the time you read this column. Caleb Martin struggled early this series with only six total points, but he bounced back in Games 3 and 4 with 21 total points, surpassing this number in both games. Martin is now averaging 12.8 points per game in the postseason after averaging 9.6 points per game in the regular season.
The primary justification for backing the over is the market. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging +101 for the over 10.5. DraftKings is charging +100 for the over 10.5 and -160 for Martin just to score 10 points. We can buy the over 9.5 for -115 at FanDuel — at least for now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fix this market soon.
The biggest potential problem for this prop is the possible return of Tyler Herro. However, head coach Erik Spoelstra has already slid Caleb Martin back onto the bench, and Herro is unlikely to see major minutes in the first game back from his hand injury. Martin has scored double-digit points in 16 of his 22 postseason games, good for a 72.7% hit rate, better than the -115 (53.5%) at FanDuel.
Best Heat-Nuggets Player Prop: Caleb Martin Over 9.5 Points -115 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
