The Golden State Warriors will line up against the Sacramento Kings with a second-round bid on the line. The Warriors, who have struggled on the road all season, stole a road win against the Kings in Game 5. Fortunately, betting value abounds across the major sportsbooks, especially on the Klay Thompson and Keegan Murray player prop markets for Game 6. If you’re searching for more Kings-Warriors player props and other sharp plays for Game 6, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Kings-Warriors Warriors Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson O/U 23.5 Points
I’m usually a big analytics guy but sometimes the NBA script writes itself. Klay Thompson, otherwise known as Game 6 Klay, gets a crucial home matchup against the Sacramento Kings tonight. Thompson has played in nine Game 6’s since Golden State’s run in the 2016 playoffs. He went for at least 25 points in six of those games. Most of those games came on the road. Thompson went for 30-plus points in all three of his home Game 6’s in that sample.
Thompson may not be the player he once was, but he isn’t a shell of himself. He routinely performed well at home this year. Thompson averaged 24.4 points per game at home, 5.2 more than what he averaged on the road, in the regular season. He did so on shooting splits of 45-42-85 and a usage rate of 27.8%. Thompson had a quiet Game 3 with only 13 points, but he bounced back with an impressive 26 in Game 4.
Further, Thompson’s relative quietness sets him up for a big Game 6. The Kings are unlikely to devote their limited defensive resources to stopping him, at least early in this contest. Three players lined up against Thompson for more than 2:30 in Game 5: Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray. All three recorded defensive RAPTOR scores of -1.3 or worse in the regular season. Only Monk has a better score in the metric through five playoff games; both Huerter and Murray have fared worse.
It’s not usually smart to bet on narratives, especially when some books have boosted the odds for them, but that doesn’t mean we should fade them. Especially when Thompson averaged 24.4 points per game at home in the regular season, north of this number despite a small workload minutes-wise. Let’s take advantage of the boost for Thompson to score 25+ points for +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you can’t get a full unit on it, play the +110 at FanDuel Sportsbook to get the rest of the way there.
Best Kings-Warriors Player Prop: Klay Thompson 25+ Points +150 at DraftKings (Max $25) & +110 at FanDuel for 1 Unit
Kings-Warriors Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Keegan Murray
Keegan Murray O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
After an impressive rookie campaign, Sacramento’s lottery selection has struggled in the playoffs. Keegan Murray started this series by shooting 0-for-3 from the perimeter in Games 1 and 2 before getting benched by head coach Mike Brown. He then shot 1-for-5 in Game 3. Murray showed signs of life in Game 4 by shooting 5-for-7 from beyond the arc going only 2-for-2 in Game 5 despite playing a series-high 35 minutes.
Murray’s inability to stay on the floor early in this series speaks to his defensive weaknesses. He owns a negative defensive RAPTOR score both for the regular season and the playoffs. Only De’Aaron Fox has a worse defensive grade for the Kings than Murray in the postseason, but Fox’s offensive contributions more than make up for his struggles as a defender. The same can’t be said for Murray.
Murray isn’t a core part of Sacramento’s playoff rotation. His advanced stats for the playoffs reveal some self-awareness around this fact. Murray owned a usage rate of 15.8% in the regular season. That has plummeted to only 11.5% in the playoffs. Although Murray has shot slightly more efficiently in the postseason, downticks in both his minutes and usage will make going over this number difficult.
The sharp books are shorting Murray tonight as well. This under will cost you a whopping -165 at Pinnacle. Fortunately, bettors can still secure the under at odds of -130 at BetMGM. That price is unlikely to remain on the board for much longer, so hurry there for the best deal on the market. Readers yet to register at BetMGM can get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000!
Best Warriors-Kings Player Prop: Keegan Murray Under 2.5 3-Pointers -130 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
