The Miami Heat and New York Knicks will square off in a pivotal Game 3. The Knicks dropped Game 1 at home and nearly lost Game 2 despite the absence of Jimmy Butler. With this series headed back to Miami, the Knicks must find a way to steal a road game. Bettors hunting out sharp NBA player props for Game 3 should target Mitchell Robinson and Bam Adebayo. Need more Knicks-Heat player props? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Knicks-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Mitchell Robinson
Mitchell Robinson O/U 16.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
It’s going to become increasingly difficult for the New York Knicks to justify having Mitchell Robinson on the floor. Their traditional center was run off the floor in Game 1 with a team-low box plus-minus of -13. Although he racked up 21 PRA in that game, head coach Tom Thibodeau reduced his minutes from 34 to just 21 in Game 2 once Julius Randle returned. Robinson totaled just 11 PRA in that contest.
Because Miami starts Bam Adebayo, a far more fluid center than Robinson, he doesn’t add that much value to New York’s rotation. Robinson is averaging only 12.9 PRA against Adebayo in his regular-season career and beat this number in just five of their 13 meetings. Robinson also averaged only 25.4 minutes and 3.6 fouls per game in those contests.
Miami’s defense allowed the second-fewest points to centers this year (19.5) along with the fewest rebounds (13.2) and assists (2.7). The books haven’t fully adjusted Robinson’s props following his solid Game 1 showing and higher-volume role against the Cavaliers, but the return of Julius Randle, who can do most of what Robinson does without his limitations, makes this number a bit of a misprice. Let’s lock in the under at -120 via BetMGM.
Best Knicks-Heat Player Prop: Mitchell Robinson Under 16.5 PRA -120 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
Knicks-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo O/U 0.5 Blocks
With Mitchell Robinson likely to play a lighter role, Bam Adebayo should draw more defensive matchups with smaller players, allowing him to make a larger impact near the rim. Adebayo swatted an RJ Barrett layup in the first minute of the second half of Game 2 after going without a block in Game 1. Adebayo has averaged 0.8 blocks per game against the Knicks across 21 career starts.
I want action on this prop specifically due to Adebayo’s recent dominance against New York in the block column. Heading into this playoff series, Adebayo had blocked at least one shot in all but one of his games against the Knicks since the 2020-21 season. He averaged 1.5 blocks per game through that 10-game sample. Although Adebayo is only averaging 0.5 blocks per game through two playoff games this series, the minutes and defensive opportunities should be there for him on Saturday afternoon.
Adebayo’s regular-season numbers point to value here as well. He averaged 0.8 blocks per game and recorded at least one in 41 of his 75 appearances. With Jimmy Butler back in the lineup, Adebayo should be free to make riskier, more aggressive defensive plays that result in blocks. Let’s back him to swat at least one shot, something he has done in 10 of his last 12 starts against the Knicks, at odds of -135 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Knicks-Heat Player Prop: Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Blocks -135 for 0.68 Unit at FanDuel
