Jalen Brunson played all 48 minutes of Game 5 and led the New York Knicks to a nine-point win in Madison Square Garden. It’ll be the team’s last win in the Big Apple as Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat look to slam the door in Game 6. If you’re hunting out sharp NBA player prop bets, consider targeting Jalen Brunson and Mitchell Robinson. Need more Knicks-Heat player props for Game 6? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Knicks-Heat Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Jalen Brunson
Jalen Brunson O/U 27.5 Points
Brunson scored a monster 38 points in Game 5, but he needed to play all 48 minutes to do it. He took a series-high 22 field goal attempts and converted a series-high 54.5% of them. His strong performance in Madison Square Garden aligns with what he did in the regular season — he averaged 24.5 points per game there, a full point more than what he averaged on the road. But Brunson’s performance against the Heat in the regular season wasn’t great, and you can expect some regression from him tonight.
Brunson played three regular-season games against the Heat, all of which came in March or later. He scored exactly 25 points in both road games against the Heat before scoring only 12 in his only home start against them. Brunson has gone for 28 points or more in only nine of his 36 road starts this year. While a do-or-die playoff game isn’t comparable to a random regular-season matchup, the fatigue Brunson is feeling from Game 5 could sink his efficiency — he averaged only 22.9 points while shooting 45.1% from the floor in back-to-backs this year.
There are some market-based justifications for this play as well. Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has the under priced at -121. DraftKings Sportsbook, a public book, has the under priced at only -105. While we’re not getting the most edge in the world, we’re getting enough to justify locking in this play for just under a unit. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet, you can get $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Knicks-Heat Player Prop: Jalen Brunson Under 27.5 Points -105 for 0.9 Units at DraftKings
Knicks-Heat Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Mitchell Robinson
Mitchell Robinson O/U 15.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
We’ve been fading Mitchell Robinson for the entirety of this series, and we’re going back to the well with him in Game 6. Traditional centers often get played off the floor in the playoffs, and that’s sometimes been the case with Robinson this series — he owns a cumulative box plus-minus of zero after his solid performance in Game 5, but he is -20 when playing on the road this postseason. He also averaged just under 0.5 more fouls per game on the road than at home.
The Heat are a tough matchup for inflexible centers like Robinson. They have limited the position to the second-fewest points (19.1), second-fewest rebounds (13.1) and fewest assists (2.6) this year. Robinson has beaten this number in just three of his eight starts against Miami this year. He is averaging 5.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 0.6 assists, or 13.8 PRA, against them in the playoffs. He is also averaging 3.2 fouls per game this series, which has limited him to 25.6 minutes per game.
Mitchell’s range of outcomes is inherently slanted toward the under. He could get into early foul trouble and play 15 minutes, likely limiting him to less than seven or eight PRA. His ceiling for Game 6 is likely a 30-ish-minute performance that would yield only 18 to 19 PRA as we saw in Game 5. Robinson has stayed under this number in 11 of his 18 career starts against the Heat (61.1%), but we can buy the under at only -110 (51.2%) via BetMGM.
Best Knicks-Heat Player Prop: Mitchell Robinson Under 15.5 PRA -110 for 1.1 Unit at BetMGM
