Despite some issues for Ja Morant off the court, the Memphis Grizzlies put together a dominant regular season and look set to make another playoff run. They’ll line up against the Los Angeles Lakers in the opening round, which isn’t a great matchup, but FanDuel Sportsbook has left too much value on the Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman Sr. player prop markets for Game 1 of the Lakers-Grizzlies series. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Lakers-Grizzlies Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jaren Jackson Jr. O/U 7.5 Rebounds
Although the NBA playoffs usually call for big minutes, that may not be in the cards for Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis’ star big man averaged 27.3 minutes per game in last year’s regular season but averaged only 27.7 in the playoffs. Foul trouble played a big role in his inability to stay on the floor, as he averaged 4.4 fouls per game in last year’s postseason. Similar struggles are likely in store for him against the Los Angeles Lakers and Anthony Davis.
Fouls have plagued Jackson against Davis historically. The two have faced off against each other 10 times, and Jackson has averaged 3.8 fouls per game. He recorded at least four fouls in six of those games. Jackson and Davis have lined up against each other twice this season, and Jackson finished both of those contests with five fouls. His fouling has limited his ability to do damage on the glass — Jackson is averaging only 4.6 rebounds per game against Davis.
Jackson improved as a rebounder this year, but not even that improvement warrants a prop total this high. He averaged 6.8 rebounds in the regular season this year after averaging 6.8 in last year’s playoffs. His rebound rate of 12.6% isn’t what you want out of a big. Although he’ll benefit from the absence of Steven Adams, a much more aggressive rebounder, Jackson still averaged only 6.8 rebounds without him this year. Let’s play the under at +112 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register there can score $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager!
Best Lakers-Grizzlies Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 7.5 Rebounds +112 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Lakers-Grizzlies Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Xavier Tillman Sr.
Xavier Tillman Sr. Double-Double
We’re getting a bit funky with this NBA player prop, but that’s how you make money in the playoffs. If Jaren Jackson Jr. struggles with foul trouble, then Xavier Tillman Sr. should step up in his place. Tillman will already have to start since Steven Adams is out, and he averaged a solid 9.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game as a starter during the regular season. This included a pair of double-doubles against the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers, led by veteran big man Anthony Davis, fared decently against centers defensively this year. They allowed the sixth-fewest points per game to the position (21.5) but the sixth-most rebounds per game (15.8). Their aggressive tempo hasn’t helped — Los Angeles ranks fourth in pace this year, which has given opposing centers plenty of extra possessions to grab boards or score points.
This play ultimately comes down to the number. Tillman racked up two double-doubles against the Lakers in the regular season, but FanDuel Sportsbook is taking action on him to do so again at a whopping +430 (18.9%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this priced at only +346 (22.4%). That isn’t the biggest edge in the world, but it’s a meaningful one. Tillman has a solid chance of recording his third double-double against the Lakers this year in as many starts, especially if Jackson struggles with fouls on Sunday.
Best Lakers-Grizzlies Player Prop: Xavier Tillman Double-Double +430 for 0.25 Unit at FanDuel
