The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets will square off in a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals. The two teams had very different paths to this point: Denver secured the No. 1 seed after a dominant regular season; Los Angeles needed a play-in game to win the No. 7 seed after a sluggish start. If you’re searching for sharp NBA player prop bets, consider targeting LeBron James and Bruce Brown. Need more Lakers-Nuggets player props for Game 1? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Lakers-Nuggets Game 1 NBA Player Prop | LeBron James
LeBron James O/U 25.5 Points
The books keep daring us to short LeBron James. I say we take the challenge. James has scored more than 25 points just three times in 12 postseason starts, and just one of those games came on the road. James is averaging 22.3 points per game on the road in the playoffs and is a sharp fade because of the books’ refusal to move the number down from 25.5.
James has rarely beaten this number in Denver. He is averaging only 22.8 points per game in Ball Arena with the Los Angeles Lakers and has gone over this number just once in six starts. Few teams benefit more from home-court advantage than the Nuggets because of the elevation change, and they are an NBA-best 40-7 at home this season.
Almost every book has the under priced at -125 (55.6%), except Pinnacle, a sharp book, which has it at -127 (56%). Although that isn’t an especially meaningful edge, it does suggest that the under is the sharper side of this NBA player prop. Let’s lock this one in at BetMGM, where new users can get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000!
Best Lakers-Nuggets Player Prop: LeBron James Under 25.5 Points -125 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
Lakers-Nuggets Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Bruce Brown
Bruce Brown O/U 11.5 Points
If Game 1 devolves into a big win for the Denver Nuggets, which their dominant home record suggests will happen, expect role players like Bruce Brown to benefit substantially. Brown averaged 12.2 points per game at home in the regular season, 1.4 more than what he averaged on the road. He is averaging 13.7 points per game at home in the playoffs and has beaten this number in four of his six appearances in Ball Arena.
Brown’s regular-season starts against the Lakers also point to value here. He averaged 13.5 points per game against them across four appearances. That number jumps to 16.5 when looking at just his home games. Although Brown isn’t the highest-usage player, the Nuggets’ decision to trade Bones Hyland has left them with a scoring void on the bench that Brown has often endeavored to fill — Brown owned a usage rate of 16.6% before the All-Star Break, but that ticked up to 19.6% afterward and sits at 18.5% in the playoffs.
Let’s trust Denver’s bench unit as the Lakers make the big transition to Denver’s elevation. The Nuggets also enter Game 1 with a minor rest advantage, as the Lakers last played late on Friday. Denver is an NBA-best 17-4 with a rest advantage this season with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. Bettors can find the over priced at +105 via DraftKings Sportsbook! Lock this one in over there before the value disappears.
Best Lakers-Nuggets Player Prop: Bruce Brown Over 11.5 Points +100 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
