The Los Angeles Lakers dropped both Game 1 and 2 on the road. They’ll now return home for a Game 3 for which they are favored over the Denver Nuggets. If you’re on the hunt for sharp NBA player prop bets, consider targeting Jamal Murray and D’Angelo Russell. Need more Nuggets-Lakers player props for Game 3? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Nuggets-Lakers Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray O/U 25.5 Points
The Denver Nuggets have gotten two consecutive excellent games out of Jamal Murray. Murray racked up 31 points in Game 1 on a playoff-best 12-for-20 (60%) from the floor and then scored 37 in Game 2 on 11-for-24 (45.8%). He is still averaging an impressive 27.2 points per game in the postseason, but that rate ticks down to only 24.6 when plays on the road. This lines up with his performance in the regular season — Murray averaged 19.1 points per game away from Ball Arena, 1.6 less than what he averaged at home.
The Los Angeles Lakers know that they have to find a way to stop Murray. For the first three quarters of Game 2, they did: Murray had only 14 points heading into the final frame. He then went on a wild 6-for-7 run from the floor and took eight free throws to score a whopping 23 fourth-quarter points. Still, it’s encouraging that Murray’s primary defenders, Dennis Schröder and Jarred Vanderbilt, allowed him to score only seven points in the 31 minutes they spent covering him.
Aside from Murray’s home-away splits and poor performance against his primary defenders, we’re also shorting Denver’s starting point guard because of his tendency to struggle in road Game 3’s. Murray has played in five of them during his career and is averaging only 20.4 points per game. He has beaten this number twice but failed to even clear the 20-point threshold in the other three games. Let’s take advantage of a misprice — we can buy the under at -111 via FanDuel Sportsbook, but it’ll cost us -136 at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
Best Nuggets-Lakers Player Prop: Jamal Murray Under 25.5 Points -111 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Nuggets-Lakers Game 3 NBA Player Prop | D’Angelo Russell
D’Angelo Russell O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
No player on the Los Angeles Lakers has gotten out to a worse start in this series than D’Angelo Russell. The veteran guard is averaging only nine points per game and has shot an atrocious 1-for-8 from beyond the arc. However, he entered this series averaging a much more respectable 15.7 points and 2.1 3-pointers per game in the postseason. He also averaged 17.4 points and 2.7 3-pointers in his regular-season starts for the Lakers. I expect some positive regression out of him on Saturday night — especially since the minutes and shot volume have been there.
Two splits also point to the over as a high-value bet. First, Russell was far better at home than on the road this season. He averaged 3 3-pointers per game at home, 0.5 more than what he averaged on the road, and on a conversion rate of 40.7%, 2.7% better than what he averaged on the road. Unsurprisingly, his best playoff games have also come at home: he is averaging 18.1 points and 2.9 3-pointers per game on a conversion rate of 39.5% at home in the postseason. Second, Russell went over this number in all three of his regular-season starts against the Nuggets. He shot 8-for-15 (53.3%) in those games.
Let’s target Russell in a must-win spot for the Lakers. He has routinely come through at home, especially in Game 3’s. He scored 17 and went 2-for-7 from beyond the arc against the Memphis Grizzlies and scored 21 on 5-for-8 from beyond the arc against the Golden State Warriors. Both of those performances also came after he recorded somewhat disappointing numbers in Game 2. Because we’re already seen Russell bounce back once the Lakers return home, locking in the over at the reasonable odds of -125 via FanDuel Sportsbook is a smart investment.
Best Nuggets-Lakers Player Prop: D’Angelo Russell 2+ 3-Pointers -125 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
