The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers will face off in the second round of this year’s NBA playoffs, creating yet another matchup between LeBron James and Stephen Curry. Bettors looking for value on the player prop markets for Tuesday’s Game 1 should target Anthony Davis and Jarred Vanderbilt. Looking for more Lakers-Warriors player props? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Lakers-Warriors Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Jarred Vanderbilt
Jarred Vanderbilt O/U 4.5 Rebounds
What happened to Jarred Vanderbilt in the rebounding column? Vanderbilt averaged only 3.8 rebounds per game in the opening round against the Memphis Grizzlies after averaging 7.5 per game in the regular season and 6.7 with the Los Angeles Lakers. His regular-season rebounding rate (14.8%) cratered in the opening round (9.8%). He should bounce back against the Warriors.
Vanderbilt has owned the Warriors on the glass this year. Because he got shipped over midseason from the Utah Jazz, Vanderbilt actually lined up against the Golden State Warriors six times. He averaged 7.7 rebounds per game against them with Utah and 10 per game with Los Angeles. Golden State hasn’t been able to stop Vanderbilt, and he should pop off on the glass come Tuesday night.
The Warriors couldn’t rebound effectively against the Sacramento Kings. Golden State ranks 11th in rebound rate among playoff teams (48.7%). The Kings were a below-average team in the metric during the regular season (49.9%) but the Lakers were an above-average team in the metric (50.5%). Let’s trust Vanderbilt to go over a teased-up rebounding prop to get us to odds of +145 (40.8%) at FanDuel Sportsbook for a line he beat in five of his six (83.3%) regular-season games against the Warriors.
Best Lakers-Warriors Player Prop: Jarred Vanderbilt 6+ Rebounds +145 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Lakers-Warriors Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
I’m getting a bit creative with this pick, but I think there’s a chance for Anthony Davis to sink a triple early in Game 1. The Golden State Warriors just spent a whole series playing against Domantas Sabonis, who they practically dared to pull up from beyond the arc. Sabonis took 0.7 3-pointers per game but converted only 20% of them. But if the Warriors play Davis like they played Sabonis, expect Davis to actually convert one of his long-range attempts.
Davis’ regular-season numbers against the Warriors aren’t great, but some other metrics point to value. Davis only shot 1-for-7 from beyond the arc against Golden State. However, he is averaging 0.9 makes on 2.5 attempts per game in the playoffs since joining the Lakers. He averaged 0.5 makes on 1.5 attempts per game against the Grizzlies in the opening round as well. Although those rates suggest that it’s a coinflip whether Davis will sink a triple, that’s now how the books have set the odds.
We can buy Davis to hit a single 3-pointer at +190 (34.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Not only will the Warriors not be used to defending a big who actually shots, but they also were not effective at defending the perimeter in the regular season. Golden State allowed the seventh-most 3-pointers per game (12.9) and the eighth-most to centers (0.9). Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 moneyline wager!
Best Lakers-Warriors Player Prop: Anthony Davis Over 0.5 3-Pointers +190 for 0.5 Unit at DraftKings
