LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers can send the Golden State Warriors to Cancun with a road win in Game 5. It’ll be a tall task — the Warriors have dominated at home this season. In this pivotal Game 5, bettors looking for sharp NBA Lakers-Warriors player prop bets should target LeBron James and Draymond Green. Need more Lakers-Warriors player props? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Lakers-Warriors Game 5 NBA Player Prop | LeBron James
LeBron James O/U 25.5 Points
The Los Angeles Lakers won Game 4 despite a masterclass from Stephen Curry in no small part because of LeBron James going for a series-high 27 points. It marked his second-best performance of the playoffs in the points column. But he needed to take a playoff-high 25 shots just to get there, and with the series back in San Francisco for Game 5, I think it’s time to fade James. Lakers head coach Darvin Ham showed a willingness to tap out of games early in Game 3, which suggests he’ll do the same if the Warriors get out to an early lead on Wednesday.
The Lakers have a size advantage over the Golden State Warriors, but James hasn’t been able to feast against Steve Kerr’s switch-heavy defense. He drew primary coverage from Andrew Wiggins in Game 4, and, despite scoring 27 in the game, shot only 3-for-8 for 8 points in the 8:54 Wiggins spent lined up against him. James managed to go 6-for-11 (54.5%) in contested field-goal attempts for the game after going 10-for-19 (52.6%) in Games 1 through 3. Both his willingness to take contested shots and his ability to make them should regress to his series average in Game 5.
This number feels inflated based on James’ regular-season average (28.9) and historical production. But James plays a low-usage role with both D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Davis in the lineup and is averaging only 22.6 points and 18.8 field-goal attempts per game with them in the mix. James has gone over this number in just two playoff starts and two regular-season starts alongside Russell and Davis out of an 18-game sample. Let’s lock in the under at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can get $150 in bonus bets by winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Lakers-Warriors Player Prop: LeBron James Under 25.5 Points -115 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Lakers-Warriors Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Draymond Green
Draymond Green O/U 14.5 Rebounds & Assists
Although Draymond Green isn’t the highest-usage player, he contributes plenty both on the glass and as a passer. Green averaged 15.7 rebounds and assists at home this year, 0.1 more than what he averaged on the road. He is only averaging 13.6 rebounds and assists this series, but he went over this total with 20 in Game 2 and 17 in Game 4. Steve Kerr’s decision to use Kevon Looney off the bench has helped Green in the rebounding department; Green averaged 0.11 rebounds per minute in Game 1 but has averaged 0.26 since.
Although Steve Kerr has explained Looney’s limited minutes as a function of an illness, it’s likelier that he hasn’t returned to the lineup because the Warriors see small-ball as the key to the series. Looney’s Game 1 against Anthony Davis went terribly — Davis scored 17 points on 8-for-11 from the field and dished out four assists in the 7:59 minutes Looney spent lined up against him. Although he came down with plenty of boards, Looney recorded the worst defensive rating of Golden State’s starters (119.7) in Game 1.
Don’t expect Kerr to pivot back to Looney in Game 5. Instead, expect him to trust the small-ball lineup — or at least one similar to it — that nearly won Game 4 on the road. Golden State lost Game 4 by only one possession despite shooting a series-worst 29.3% from beyond the arc. The Warriors shot 39.3% and 50% from deep in Games 1 and 2, so some regression to the mean should help Green secure a few extra assists in Game 5. Foul trouble is always a risk for Green, but he averaged slightly fewer personal fouls per game at home (3) than on the road (3.3) this year.
Best Lakers-Warriors Player Prop: Draymond Green Over 14.5 Rebounds & Assists -110 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
