The Philadelphia 76ers got off to a strong start in Game 1 against the Brooklyn Nets with a commanding 20-point win. They’ll look to stay hot at the Wells Fargo Center on Monday night. I think books like FanDuel and DraftKings have left too much value on the James Harden and Seth Curry player prop markets for Game 2. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Nets-76ers Game 2 NBA Player Prop | James Harden
James Harden O/U 20.5 Points
The 76ers racked up a whopping 121 points in Game 1. They did so by shooting 47.2% from the field and 48.8% from beyond the arc. Star guard James Harden went an absurd 7-for-13 (53.8%) from the perimeter on his way to 23 points. He made only one field goal from inside the arc and did not get to the charity stripe. His reliance on 3-point shooting could be his undoing in Game 2.
We’re shorting Harden here because Philadelphia cannot sustain this production. The 76ers and Nets played at the slowest pace of any playoff series in Game 1. Philadelphia’s offensive efficiency, or points per 100 possessions, was 133.7 — 16.7 points higher than their regular-season average. Bettors can safely expect some regression in the scoring department.
I’m fading Harden for two key reasons. First, the Nets will make some defensive adjustments heading into Game 2. They chose to stick Dorian Finney-Smith on Harden to start, and Harden scored six of his 23 points in the 3:43 he spent lined up against him. Finney-Smith played only five minutes in the second half, and Harden scored only six points on 33.3% from the field. Look for either Royce O’Neale or Mikal Bridges to spend more time covering Harden.
Second, the Nets actually played solid perimeter defense after the trade deadline. They allowed the third-fewest above-the-break 3’s per game following the pause (7.7) on the ninth-lowest conversion rate (34.6%). Of Harden’s 21 shots and 13 3-point attempts, 12 were above-the-break 3’s. The books made a mistake in gassing this total up by one ahead of Game 2, so let’s capitalize before the value gets bid off the board.
Best Nets-76ers Player Prop: James Harden Under 20.5 Points -115 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Nets-76ers Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Seth Curry
Seth Curry O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
The Brooklyn Nets haven’t used Seth Curry consistently since the All-Star Break, but his usage in Saturday’s Game 1 was encouraging. After averaging only 14.2 minutes per game down the stretch, Curry played 16.3 minutes in Game 1 and shot 2-for-3 from beyond the arc. He might see even more usage in Game 2.
Brooklyn’s head coach, Jacque Vaughn, emphasized the need for perimeter shooting in his post-game comments. That will likely mean more minutes for the team’s better perimeter shooters and fewer minutes for their worse ones. Curry ranked fourth on the Nets in 3-point shooting percentage at 40.8% in the regular season.
The slow pace and Philadelphia’s tough defense may limit Brooklyn’s chances from beyond the arc, but Curry benefited more than most from defensive mismatches. More of his time on the floor came against big wing Jalen McDaniels than any other defender, and he shot 2-for-2 from deep against him. The 76ers were 3.1 points less efficient on defense with McDaniels on the floor than with him off it this year.
The books aren’t sure what to do with Curry tonight. FanDuel has the over for this play priced down at -390 (79.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it at -256 (71.9%). Fortunately for us, we can buy the over for only -220 (68.6%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. That isn’t the best price, but it’s a solid deal relative to the market’s going rate for a play that should hit. Let’s wager enough to secure a half-unit profit.
Best Nets-76ers Player Prop: Seth Curry Over 0.5 3-Pointers -220 for 1.1 Unit at DraftKings
