The Phoenix Suns find themselves down 0-2 to the Denver Nuggets. They’ll return to the Footprint Center on Friday, but they are unlikely to have Chris Paul for the contest. Bettors searching for value on the player prop markets for Game 3 should look at Cameron Payne, Paul’s backup, and Kevin Durant. Looking for more Nuggets-Suns player props? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Nuggets-Suns Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The Phoenix Suns know they have to start making some 3-pointers. Without Chris Paul, that task will fall increasingly upon Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Although the Denver Nuggets will now be able to concentrate upon them a bit more defensively, the overall shot volume should be there for Durant to cash the over on this player prop in Game 3. He just attempted 12 3-pointers in Game 2, of which he only made a pair, so we’re getting the over at a much better number than where it should be.
Durant’s regular-season production with the Suns points to value here. He averaged 2.8 3-pointers per game with Phoenix, including a 6-for-10 game from beyond the arc at home against the Denver Nuggets. Although much has been made of Phoenix’s poor perimeter shooting, Durant still averaged 2.2 3-pointers per game against the Clippers, beating this number in three of their five meetings, on a conversion rate of 45.8%.
Let’s back Durant in a fantastic buy-low spot. The two makes have driven the over’s price down, but the 12 attempts point to a boatload of value. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at only +105 (48.8%). However, you can lock in the over at +125 (44.4%) at DraftKings Sportsbook if you hurry. Take advantage of this fantastic deal before it disappears. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can even score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Nuggets-Sun Player Prop: Kevin Durant Over 2.5 3-Pointers +125 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Nuggets-Suns Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Cameron Payne
Cameron Payne O/U 9.5 Points
The Phoenix Suns almost certainly won’t have Chris Paul in Game 3, and that will likely thrust Cameron Payne into the starting five. Payne had to make 15 starts in the regular season this year and averaged 14.9 points and 2.2 3-pointers per game in those contests. Although he now faces competition for shots from Kevin Durant, Payne should still do some damage against a Denver defense that allowed the 11th-most points per game to point guards this year (24.8).
Payne mostly came off the bench this year, but his numbers still point to value relative to his betting lines. Payne averaged 10.3 points and 1.4 3-pointers per game across 48 appearances while averaging only 20.2 minutes per game. His minutes should increase substantially with Paul sidelined, and while he now has to play alongside higher-usage teammates, Payne should benefit from the Denver defense focusing on Durant and Devin Booker.
Not every book has opened the bidding on the Cameron Payne player prop markets just yet, but those that have don’t have the most efficient numbers. Payne’s points prop sits at 9.5, which he beat in 11 of his 15 starts this year. When teased up to 1.5, the over for his 3-pointers sits at +250 (28.6%) on FanDuel Sportsbook — a number he beat in eight of his 15 starts. Let’s capitalize on these numbers before they disappear. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can score $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Nuggets-Suns Player Prop: Cameron Payne Over 9.5 Points -110 for 0.66 Unit at FanDuel
Best Nuggets-Suns Player Prop: Cameron Payne 2+ 3-Pointers +250 for 0.33 Unit at FanDuel
