The Phoenix Suns managed to not go down 3-0 with a Game 3 win over the Denver Nuggets, but the narrow home win didn’t inspire much confidence. The Suns needed monster games from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker just to stave off near-certain elimination. If you need some sharp NBA player prop bets for Game 4, target Devin Booker and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. If you want more Nuggets-Suns player props? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Nuggets-Suns Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Devin Booker
Devin Booker O/U 36.5 Points & Rebounds
After watching Games 1 through 3, it’s become clear that the Phoenix Suns will need Devin Booker and Kevin Durant to have the playoff run of their careers to get this team to the next round. Phoenix likely lacks the 3-point shooting the modern NBA requires; the team’s offense revolves around Durant and Booker in the midrange. Although Booker has adjusted and is averaging 4.5 3-pointers per game through the last two, his 56.3% conversion rate is unsustainable.
It’s tough to get a read on whether Booker will have an off night, but looking into the matchup stats reveals how improbable his recent production has been. Booker lined up against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a net-positive defender this year, for 4:51 in Game 3. Booker shot 7-for-10 and 3-for-5 from deep against him. He also faced coverage from Aaron Gordon for another 2:51 and shot 4-for-5 against him. Booker converted seven of his nine contested shots on an absurd clip of 77.8%.
Booker averaged 27.8 points and 4.5 rebounds (32.3 total) per game in the regular season. Although he is averaging 36.9 points and 5 rebounds (41.9) per game in the playoffs, he has done so on 60.2% from the field and 48.9% from beyond the arc. It’s scary to buy the under on a player as hot as Booker, but we’re getting a number that he failed to clear in Game 1 and in each of his regular-season starts against Denver. With Booker also having struggled with fouls in Games 2 and 3, let’s lock in the under at -110 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Nuggets-Suns Player Prop: Devin Booker Under 36.5 Points & Rebounds -110 for 0.55 Unit at DraftKings
Nuggets-Suns Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope O/U 1.5 Steals
One of Booker’s defenders, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, should benefit from Denver’s likely narrowed rotation. The probable absence of Chris Paul thrust Cameron Payne into the starting five for Game 3, and the matchup against the less-experienced guard helped KCP notch a pair of steals for the fourth time this postseason and the second time this series. Caldwell-Pope averaged 1.5 steals per game in the regular season and recorded at least two in 34 of his 76 appearances (44.7%), including both of his starts against Phoenix.
The way Denver used KCP in Game 3 should encourage bettors considering this play. Caldwell-Pope played only 28 minutes in Game 1 but logged 41 in Game 2 and 35 in Game 3. Despite his increasing minutes, KCP has taken fewer shots in each contest since Game 1 as the Nuggets likely push him to focus on his defensive efforts. In Game 3, Caldwell-Pope spent 4:51 covering Booker, 3:37 covering Durant and 1:34 covering Payne, Phoenix’s three leading players in both touches and passes.
We’re getting a solid deal on the over via FanDuel Sportsbook. With the over priced at only +122 (45.1%), we’re locking this play in right around both KCP’s regular-season hit rate (44.7%) and playoff hit rate (44.4%). Other books have the over priced at only +115 (46.5%). With Phoenix likely trotting out Payne alongside a number of late-season acquisitions, expect Caldwell-Pope to exploit the team’s relative inexperience and lack of chemistry for some steals. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Nugget-Suns Player Prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Steals +122 for 0.5 Unit at FanDuel
