The Denver Nuggets won a pivotal Game 5 at home and have a chance to lock up the series with a road win. But the Phoenix Suns, especially Devin Booker, defended their home floor with a rare ferocity. If you’re hunting out sharp NBA player prop bets, consider targeting Kevin Durant and Jamal Murray. Need more Nuggets-Suns player props for Game 6? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Nuggets-Suns Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
The Phoenix Suns return to Arizona for a do-or-die Game 6. They’ll need a big game out of both their superstars, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, regardless of whether Chris Paul suits up. I’m trusting Durant from beyond the arc in this spot because the price has gotten so cheap. Durant hit at least a pair of 3-pointers in 30 of his 47 regular-season appearances (63.8%) and in all eight of his regular-season starts for the Suns.
Regression underpins this play. Durant has converted only 33.3% of his 3-pointers this postseason after converting 40.4% of them in the regular season (and 53.7% in his starts for the Suns). Durant shot 57.1% from beyond the arc at home in Phoenix in a four-game sample, which may not be sustainable, but which suggests the 10-29 (34.4%) he has shot from beyond the arc in the Footprint Center during the playoffs should tick up.
Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over for Durant’s 3-pointers priced at -176 (63.8%). But FanDuel Sportsbook has the over priced at only -150 (60%). If you subscribe to OddsShopper Insider Access, you could’ve locked this play in at -140 (58.3%) before some early line movement happened as I was writing this bet up. If you’re yet to sign up for FanDuel, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Nuggets-Suns Player Prop: Kevin Durant Over 1.5 3-Pointers -150 for 1 Unit FanDuel
Nuggets-Suns Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray O/U 35.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
I’m a little iffy on the Denver Nuggets in Game 6. The Nuggets are an NBA-best 40-7 at home this year, but their 20-25 road record ranks only 10th. The Phoenix Suns have gone 32-14 at home. They are 7-1 in the Footprint Center when Kevin Durant suits up. All of this is to say that I’m fading one member of Denver’s rotation, Jamal Murray, especially because of his relevant splits.
Murray averaged 28.9 PRA on the road in the regular season — 2.2 less than what he averaged at home. Further, Murray averaged only 25.4 PRA in games the Nuggets lost, 7.1 less than what he averaged in wins. Murray also averaged only 30 PRA against the Suns in the regular season. Although he has stepped into a larger, higher-usage role in the postseason, this number still feels a bit too inflated for what we saw him do in the regular season, especially when playing away from Ball Arena.
The Nuggets will likely keep Thursday’s game close, but if the Suns can find a way to pull out to a sizeable lead, don’t be surprised if Nuggets head coach Mike Malone pulls the plug and opts to push for a Game 7 win at home. The risk he does so gives Murray a wide range of outcomes that tilts toward the under. Still, I respect Murray’s postseason performance enough to only wager a half-unit on this one in case the Suns come out flat and Murray capitalizes early.
Best Nuggets-Suns Player Prop: Jamal Murray Under 35.5 PRA -113 for 0.5 Unit at FanDuel
