After a rocky Game 1, the Phoenix Suns bounced back and beat the Los Angeles Clippers in a must-win Game 2. This series now heads to the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. FanDuel and DraftKings have left too much value on the Norman Powell and Torrey Craig player prop markets for Game 3. If you’re looking for more plays, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Suns-Clippers Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Torrey Craig
Torrey Craig O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
I don’t usually like to tail hot streaks in the playoffs, as regression comes for everyone, but the strong recent play from Phoenix’s Torrey Craig isn’t noise. In his post-game press conference after Game 1, Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue said that he wanted Craig to shoot. “We know CP, we know KD, we know Booker, and what they can do — Craig’s been playing great, not to take anything away from him, but we want him taking more shots.” Craig responded by shooting 5-for-8 from the perimeter in Game 2.
It’s impossible to defend everyone in this Suns offense with the current personnel Lue has at his disposal. In Game 1, the Clippers put Ivica Zubac on Craig for 3:06 of coverage. Craig responded by shooting 2-for-4 from deep when lined up against him. In Game 2, Zubac spent only 1:35 on Craig. Instead, Kawhi Leonard was on him for 3:13, and Craig went 1-for-2 from deep in those minutes. Eric Gordon covered Craig for 1:33, and Craig responded by shooting 2-for-2 from deep against him.
The Clippers may shift to a smaller lineup as the series progresses to keep up with Phoenix’s dominant backcourt. That should leave Craig, a 6-foot-7 wing, with some defensive mismatches. Further, it should also ensure he sees plenty of run, as the Suns should respond to Lue’s small-ball lineups by limiting their usage of backup centers, opening up more chances for Craig, a big wing.
We can buy Craig to hit at least a pair of triples at only -120 (54.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. The over hit in both Games 1 and 2, and Craig averaged 1.7 3-pointers per game against the Clippers in meaningful games this season. All three of those performances came before the arrival of Kevin Durant. While having to compete with Durant for shots hurts Craig’s usage, it also creates open looks for him. Readers who are new to DraftKings can even get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Suns-Clippers Player Prop: Torrey Craig Over 1.5 3-Pointers -120 for 0.6 Unit at DraftKings
Suns-Clippers Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Norman Powell
Norman Powell O/U 14.5 Points
The Los Angeles Clippers will need their ancillary weapons and bench players to step up if they want to win Game 3. Norman Powell stands out as an early underperformer in this series, as he has posted point totals of only 14 and 12 across two games. He averaged 17 points per game in the regular season, 18.5 against the Suns and 19.7 without Paul George. With this series returning to Los Angeles, expect Powell to step back up in Game 3.
Powell played slightly better at home this year. He averaged 17.6 points per game in home games held in the Crypto.com Arena, up from the 16.5 he averaged in away games. He also averaged 15.5 points per game in the two “road” games held in this arena against the Los Angeles Lakers. Powell went over this number in 18 of his 27 home games, good for a raw hit rate of 66.7%.
The shot volume has been there for Powell. He has taken 10.5 field goals per game, just slightly below the 11.8 he averaged in the regular season, but converted only 42.8% of his looks, well below the 47.9% he averaged this year. His struggles aren’t because the Suns have concentrated on him defensively, either. Landry Shamet has spent the most time lined up against Powell this series, and Shamet has been a negative defender in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings in every season until this one.
I’m not sold on Shamet’s defensive improvement. Powell has scored 15-plus points in seven of his 11 games against Shamet while averaging 16.6 per game. I expect Powell to see an uptick in production during this crucial home game. The sharp books do, too — Pinnacle has the over priced at -137 (57.8%), but we can buy it at -125 (55.6%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s lock in the better number and hope for a bounce-back showing from Powell.
Best Suns-Clippers Player Prop: Norman Powell 15+ Points -125 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
