We’re finally on to the second round of the NBA playoffs. While the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings still have to wrap their series up, the Western Conference playoffs advance with a series between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. The books have left a bit too much value on the Chris Paul and Aaron Gordon player prop markets for Game 1. If you’re looking for more Suns-Nuggets player props or other sharp bets, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Suns-Nuggets Warriors Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Chris Paul
Chris Paul O/U 8.5 Assists
The books have started the bidding on the assist market for Chris Paul at only 8.5. Although this should be a slower-paced series than Phoenix’s first-round matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers, Paul should still do plenty of damage as a passer. He has dished out at least 10 assists in his last five regular-season games against the Denver Nuggets with Nikola Jokic on the floor.
Paul has started off the playoffs in reasonably solid form. He led the Suns-Clippers series in total assists while averaging 8.2 per game. He dished out at least 10 only once but averaged a whopping 14 potential assists per game, the fifth-most of all players in the playoffs. With talented shooters in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, Paul has the luxury of knowing that his passes have a higher chance of turning into points.
Several regular-season numbers suggest that regressions should lead to an uptick in Paul’s assist numbers. Paul averaged 16.5 potential assists per game and 14.9 after the All-Star Break. The Denver Nuggets also struggled to stop point guards from setting up their teammates all season — the team allowed the third-most assists per game to the position on the year (9.3).
Let’s back Paul to dish out at least 10 assists in Game 1. He opened his most recent series with a 10-assist performance and averaged 10.3 per game in Phoenix’s four-game sweep of the Nuggets in 2021. DraftKings Sportsbook has this one priced down at -105, but we can find the +115 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Suns-Nuggets Player Prop: Chris Paul 10+ Assists +115 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Suns-Nuggets Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon O/U 0.5 Blocks
The Minnesota Timberwolves didn’t let Aaron Gordon swat many shots in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, Gordon recorded only one block in five starts against them. However, Gordon averaged 0.8 blocks per game in the regular season this year and 1.2 in his most recent playoff run for the Nuggets. He’ll now face a Suns team that was giving up blocks to the likes of Russell Westbrook in the first round.
Gordon’s strong recent play against the Suns points to value on the over. He lined up against Phoenix three times in the regular season and tallied one block in each contest. He also stayed out of foul trouble in the process, something he failed to do in Denver’s opening-round series against the Timberwolves, which suggests he should stick on the floor for longer stretches.
The Nuggets will need to put together some strong defensive performances to keep the Phoenix Suns from running away with this series offensively, and it’s likely that Aaron Gordon will have to play a big part in keeping games close. Gordon owns a cumulative box plus-minus of +33 in his three meetings with the Suns this year. Expect more of the same come Saturday night.
This play makes that much more sense because the Nuggets will start the series with the home-court advantage. Gordon averaged 0.8 blocks per game at home this year, 0.1 more than what he averaged on the road. DraftKings has the over for this Game 1 player prop priced at only +100, so the +108 at FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of value relative to the market. Let’s lock this one in before the number disappears.
Best Suns-Nuggets Player Prop: Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 Blocks +108 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
