The Phoenix Suns entered Game 3 on thin ice. But then Devin Booker and Kevin Durant stepped up and evened the series at two games apiece. We’re headed back to Denver for Game 5, and if you’re looking for sharp NBA player prop bets, target Devin Booker and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Need more Suns-Nuggets player props? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Suns-Nuggets Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Devin Booker
Devin Booker O/U 32.5 Points
We may have jumped the gun by fading Devin Booker in Game 4, but I’m undeterred about fading him in Game 5. The star shooting guard shot a dominant 79.1% from the floor and 66.7% from beyond the arc in Games 3 and 4 after shooting a still-solid 50% from the floor and 44.4% from beyond the arc in Games 1 and 2. Booker’s best two playoff starts by shooting percentage are now Games 3 and 4 of this series. Those recent big games are allowing us to sell high at a ridiculous number.
Booker’s regular-season and playoff averages point to value here. Booker shot only 49.4% from the floor and 35.1% from beyond the arc in the regular season, so regression looms. He also scored 33-plus points in just 14 of his 53 regular season appearances (26.4%) and failed to do so in any of his regular-season games against the Nuggets. Further, Booker averaged 27.4 points per game on the road this year, 0.7 points less than what he averaged at home.
Booker is an incredibly talented player, but not even incredibly talented players can shoot at this clip for multiple games in a row. Booker needed to convert 77.8% of his shots to score 36 points in Game 4. Although the absence of Chris Paul has thrust Booker into a higher-usage role, it isn’t large enough to justify passing on the under at this price. Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has the total for this prop set a full point lower. Let’s pounce on the under 32.5 at -113 via FanDuel Sportsbook before the book adjusts.
Best Suns-Nuggets Player Prop: Devin Booker Under 32.5 Points -113 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Suns-Nuggets Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope O/U 9.5 Points
With the Denver Nuggets getting massive games out of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, it’s been easy to forget about role players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. However, KCP averaged a steady 10.8 points per game in the regular season and is averaging 9.8 points per game in the playoffs. KCP has beaten this number in three of his four starts this series. He also beat it in his two regular-season starts against the Phoenix Suns.
A split is the key to this prop. Caldwell-Pope averaged 11.1 points per game at home in the regular season, 0.6 more than what he averaged on the road. In the playoffs, KCP is averaging 11.4 points per game at home, 3.7 more than what he is averaging on the road. He has also taken 1.2 more field goals and 1.3 more 3-pointers when playing in the Ball Arena than when playing outside of it. Although Caldwell-Pope isn’t a very high-usage player, it’s clear that he shoots with more confidence on his home court.
We’re getting the over at odds of +100 (50%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Caldwell-Pope has gone for 10-plus points in six of his nine playoff starts (66.7%) and went for 10-plus points in 42 of his 76 regular-season starts (55.2%). He also beat this number in 23 of his 39 regular-season starts in Denver (58.9%). Pinnacle has the over priced at -130 (56.5%), so we’re getting a great deal relative to the market. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager until May 15!
Best Suns-Nuggets Player Prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 10+ Points +100 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
