The Minnesota Timberwolves threw away a chance at the seventh seed with their fourth-quarter collapse against the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ll now face the Oklahoma City Thunder for the right to play the Denver Nuggets. NBA player prop bettors have plenty to look forward to on Friday — FanDuel and DraftKings have left too much value on the Anthony Edwards and Jaylin Williams player prop markets for this play-in game. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Thunder-Timberwolves Play-In Game NBA Player Prop | Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards O/U 27.5 Points
The Minnesota Timberwolves got only nine points out of their star wing, Anthony Edwards, against the Los Angeles Lakers. He went an atrocious 3-for-17 from the floor and turned the ball over four times. However, the Timberwolves still let him play for 43 minutes, and they don’t have many other options on offense. Let’s back him to bounce back against Oklahoma City’s softer defense.
Edwards should remain a high-usage player, and his shooting percentage should regress to the mean. Not counting injuries, Edwards had only scored in the single digits once in the regular season. He went 3-for-15 from the floor in that game. Edwards followed that dud up with a 34-point performance in which he shot 12-for-21.
The Thunder tend to struggle against opposing teams’ highest-usage options. New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram racked up 30 points in their first play-in game. Golden State’s Stephen Curry racked up a monster 34 points late in the year against Oklahoma City, and Jordan Poole added another 30 points of his own. It helps that the Thunder played at the NBA’s third-fastest pace this year, which should give Edwards a handful of extra possessions to work with. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this over priced to -108. Let’s buy the +102 at FanDuel Sportsbook instead.
Best Thunder-Timberwolves Player Prop: Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points +102 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
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Thunder-Timberwolves Play-In Game NBA Player Prop | Jaylin Williams
Jaylin Williams O/U 7.5 Points
The Oklahoma City Thunder committed to the bit this offseason by pairing Jalen Williams (J-Dub) with Jaylin Williams (Jay Will). The duo have looked solid for them thus far, especially down the stretch. Jay Will has averaged 6.5 points per game since the All-Star Break on only 21.7 minutes per game. The Thunder kept him in the game for 32 minutes against the Pelicans, and he responded by scoring eight points on only 3-for-9 from the field.
I think Jay Will left some points on the table in his last game, but I don’t expect him to do so tonight. With Minnesota likely trotting out either a hobbled Rudy Gobert or a limited frontcourt, Jay Will should have plenty of opportunities to score. Minnesota’s big mean clearly ran out of gas late in their last outing and will likely do so again. The Timberwolves let Anthony Davis rack up 24 points in their first play-in game.
Even if Gobert is active and clogs the paint, he struggles to defend big men that can shoot. The Timberwolves have allowed the second-most 3-pointers per game to centers this year (1.1). Unfortunately for the Wolves, Jay Will is averaging 1.2 3-pointers per game since the All-Star Break and just pulled up from deep seven times against the Pels. Let’s buy Jay Will’s over at +110 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Thunder-Timberwolves Player Prop: Jaylin Williams Over 7.5 Points +110 for 0.8 Unit at DraftKings
