The Denver Nuggets will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs, creating another battle between Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic. Jokic got the best of Gobert in the 2020 playoffs, and I’m locking in these two Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert player props for Game 1 at DraftKings — let’s hope for a fun Timberwolves-Nuggets series. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Rudy Gobert
Rudy Gobert No Double-Double
After punching teammate Kyle Anderson in the chest, Rudy Gobert racked up 21 points and 10 rebounds against the Oklahoma City Thunder to secure the eighth seed. He played 33 minutes in the blowout win. He now faces a Denver Nuggets team that has allowed an NBA-low 48.3 rebounds per game to its opponents. I expect Gobert to disappear as he usually does when lined up against Nikola Jokic.
I’m not sure what it is, but Gobert has played terribly against Jokic this year. The Timberwolves let him play only 23 minutes per game across two meetings, and he turned that limited volume into only 4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 personal fouls per game. Those aren’t the numbers you want to see from someone who costs your franchise $41 million per year. It wasn’t hard to see this coming, but I guess Timberwolves president Tim Connelly must know something that I don’t.
Some other Gobert stats also point to some here. He averaged 16.9 points and 11.4 rebounds against Jokic in the 2020 playoffs but failed to record a double-double in their first two meetings. Gobert recorded only 35 double-doubles this season in 70 starts, which means we’re getting this wager at its raw hit rate of 50%. Although Gobert has also failed to record a double-double in only nine of his 21 regular-season starts against Jokic, four of those misses have come in their last six meetings. Let’s lock this play in at +100 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Timberwolves-Nuggets Player Prop: Rudy Gobert No Double-Double +100 for 0.5 Unit at DraftKings
Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic No Triple-Double
As much as I prefer Nikola Jokic to Rudy Gobert, one glaring fact stands out: Jokic has recorded only three triple-doubles against him across 28 starts, including the postseason. The Utah Jazz held him to only 8.1 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game in their 2020 playoff series, and Jokic has averaged only 10.2 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game against Gobert in the regular season. Despite the fact he is practically averaging a triple-double this year, fading Jokic should prove sharp as the Nuggets look to slow things down in the playoffs.
The Denver Nuggets haven’t played a brand of basketball conducive to letting Jokic triple-double in the postseason. He has made 48 playoff starts but recorded only six triple-doubles, good for a raw hit rate of only 12.5%. The Nuggets played 1.7% slower in the 2022 playoffs than in the regular season that year and 1.3% slower in 2021. That may not seem like much of a difference, but because 12 of Jokic’s 29 triple-doubles this year saw him finish with exactly 10 rebounds or 10 assists, there isn’t much room for error.
Jokic lined up against Gobert twice this season and recorded only one triple-double. That performance came with Jamal Murray sidelined, which led to Jokic dishing out a season-high 16 assists. Jokic averaged 0.2 more assists per game with Murray out of the lineup this year. The price for this bet isn’t great, as it’s down at -180 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but it’s good enough for another half-unit wager, which would profit just over a quarter unit.
Best Timberwolves-Nuggets Player Prop: Nikola Jokic No Triple-Double -180 for 0.5 Unit at DraftKings
