The Minnesota Timberwolves didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets. Denver earned a 29-point win after outscoring Minnesota by 18 in the third quarter. The Timberwolves didn’t do much well against the Nuggets, and DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray player prop markets for Game 2. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon O/U 14.5 Points
The Minnesota Timberwolves decided to stick Rudy Gobert on Aaron Gordon for most of the first quarter. This defensive assignment went poorly for them. Gordon recorded five points, including a 3-pointer, while lined up against Gobert. He finished the frame with five points but then picked up two quick fouls early in the second, leading head coach Mike Malone to leave him on the bench until the start of the third. Gordon finished the game with 13 points in only 23 minutes of action.
Gordon usually plays well against Gobert — at least since he joined the Nuggets. Across five regular-season meetings, Gordon averaged 17.2 points, reaching the 20-point mark on three occasions. He has played three games against Gobert since the Frenchman joined the Timberwolves and is averaging 16.3 points per game and just under 0.6 points per minute. If Gordon can stay out of foul trouble and play the 30.2 minutes he averaged in the regular season, he should tally at least 18.1 points.
Minnesota’s head coach talked a bit about changing up the defensive assignments in his postgame interview, but his answers don’t inspire much confidence. The Timberwolves don’t exactly have many options if they leave both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns in the starting lineup. While Kyle Anderson could possibly cover Gordon, neither KAT nor Gobert would fare well against Michael Porter Jr. If the Timberwolves continue to struggle with turnovers, expect Gordon to benefit more than other members of Denver’s offense — he ranks third in points in transition per game (3.3).
The sharp books know that they must respect Aaron Gordon in Game 2. That’s why Pinnacle has the over priced at only -139 (58.1%). However, bettors can currently buy the over at -105 (51.2%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a surprising amount of edge for a market like this one, and bettors should take advantage before this number disappears. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can even get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Timberwolves-Nuggets Player Prop: Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 Points -105 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray O/U 6.5 Assists
The Denver Nuggets leaned on Jamal Murray more than usual as a playmaker in Game 1. He dished out a team-high eight assists in the win. Jokic recorded only six. But just because Murray put together a strong performance in the assist column in Game 1 doesn’t mean it’s time to back him to do so again — Murray averaged only 6.2 assists per game in the regular season. He stayed under this number in 37 of his 65 appearances (56.9%).
Murray just doesn’t see the volume necessary to justify this number to sit at 6.5. He passed only 44 times, putting him solidly behind Jokic (57) despite playing more minutes than him. Murray actually averaged more passes per game in the regular season (49.3), but the slow pace kept him from clearing that number in Game 1. This lines up with what he did against Minnesota in the regular season. He averaged four assists on 41 passes per game in those contests.
The second game of this series has just as much blowout potential as the first. The Denver Nuggets have gone 26-15-1 against the spread at home this year, a record that trails only the Golden State Warriors, with an average margin of victory of 10.2. Should Denver get out to another big lead, expect Malone to pull Murray out. The team has been careful with his minutes and workload all season.
Fading Murray in the assist column should prove sharp. The fact he dished out eight assists on just 44 passes in Game 1 puts him in a prime regression spot, and bettors should lock in the under before his passing struggles become more obvious. The under sits at -133 (57.1%) on Pinnacle, but we can buy it at -118 (54.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. That deal won’t stay on the board forever, so act quickly to get your action down.
Best Timberwolves-Nuggets Player Prop: Jamal Murray Under 6.5 Assists -118 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
