The Minnesota Timberwolves scored a surprise overtime win in Game 4 to force the Denver Nuggets to play a five-game series. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that the heroics of Anthony Edwards will get the team much more than another playoff game, as the Nuggets are 10-point home favorites tonight. Still, DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic player prop markets for Game 5 of the Timberwolves-Nuggets series. If you’re looking for more plays, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
The Minnesota Timberwolves tried leaving Rudy Gobert on Aaron Gordon earlier in this series, and they went back to it in Game 4. Gobert lacks the versatility needed to defend a point center like Jokic, so leaving him on Gordon, who has often lingered in the dunker spot, has minimized Gobert’s weaknesses. Gobert spent 6:24 on Gordon compared to 5:10 on Jokic in Minnesota’s Game 4 win.
For all of Gobert’s defensive accolades, the big man cannot defend the perimeter. Gordon shot 1-for-1 from beyond the arc when covered by Gobert in Game 4. Gobert only spent one minute on him in Game 3 and 3:30 on him in Game 2, not giving Gordon much time to log shots against Gobert, but Gordon also shot 1-for-2 from beyond the arc in the 3:10 Gobert spent covering him in Game 1.
Gordon has sunk at least one 3-pointer in eight of his 12 starts against the Minnesota Timberwolves with the Denver Nuggets. He has done so in six of their eight meetings since Gobert arrived while averaging 0.9 makes on 2.7 attempts per game. The Nuggets trust Gordon enough to let him shoot from the perimeter, and he has drawn the defensive matchups necessary to make them.
Let’s back Gordon to hit a single triple at odds of -125 (55.6%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Gordon has made at least one 3-pointer in 41 of his 72 starts this year (56.9%), and sharp books like Pinnacle are squeezing a bit more juice out of bettors on the over with a price of -128 (56.1%). That doesn’t give us a ton of edge, but the recent trends and Gordon’s likely matchup with Gobert make this a sharp bet. Readers yet to sign up for DraftKings can even get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Timberwolves-Nuggets Player Prop: Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 3-Pointers -125 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic O/U 24.5 Points
Although the Denver Nuggets have a chance to seal the series tonight, that doesn’t mean it’s time to come out and buy Nikola Jokic — at least as a scorer. Jokic put up a dominant 43-point showing in Game 4 to compensate for a relatively slow night for Jamal Murray, but everything we’ve seen from Denver suggests that Jokic scores less when the Nuggets are at their best.
If the books are correct about the Nuggets winning tonight’s game in dominant fashion, don’t expect it to stem from a high-scoring night from Jokic. He averaged only 0.1 more points per game in his wins than in his losses; in contrast, he averaged 3.2 more assists and 2.2 more rebounds in winning efforts. Jokic has averaged only 20 points per game in Denver’s playoff wins this year.
The Timberwolves and Nuggets have also been playing at a relatively slow pace. The two teams have averaged 95 possessions per game, fewer than all but four of the teams competing in the opening round. Considering Denver averaged 98.7 possessions per game in the regular season, the playoffs have led to a meaningful slowdown that should help keep Jokic under this number for the fourth game in this series.
The sharp books know better than to sell Jokic’s under in the plus money. Pinnacle has the under 24.5 priced at -118 (54.1%). We can find the total set to 25.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, but it’s a better idea to turn to the alt markets, where the under 24.5 is priced at only +100 (50%). Let’s slam that line for a unit as we take advantage of their inefficient pricing. The Nuggets play better when Jokic serves as a shot-creator, not a scorer, so teasing this number up to parlay it with the Denver moneyline may also make sense.
Best Timberwolves-Nuggets Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Under 24.5 Points +100 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
