In one of the biggest shocks of the NBA season, the Sacramento Kings not only made the playoffs but will host the Golden State Warriors in the opening round. Time will tell if the Kings are as good in the playoffs as they were in the regular season. Bettors should know that BetRivers and FanDuel have left too much value on the De’Aaron Fox and Klay Thompson player prop markets for Game 1 of the Warriors-Kings series. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Warriors-Kings Game 1 NBA Player Prop | De’Aaron Fox
De’Aaron Fox O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
Although De’Aaron Fox isn’t the most accurate shooter, he should do some damage from beyond the arc against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have struggled to defend the perimeter all season. They allowed the seventh-most 3-pointers per game (12.9) and the fourth-most from above the break (9.6). Since the All-Star Break, Golden State has allowed the seventh-most above-the-break 3’s per game (9.8).
Point guards have done plenty of damage against the Warriors this year. Golden State allowed the third-most 3-pointers per game to the position in the regular season (3.2). Fox shot 5-for-15 (33.3%) against them this year, beating this number in two games and missing it just once. He cleared this number in his lone home start against Golden State as well. Fox has fared better from beyond the arc on the road than at home, but the extra playoff workload should help him cash this NBA player prop for Game 1.
Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at -130. Most domestic books, like DraftKings and FanDuel, have opened the bidding at a similar price. However, BetRivers is a bit of an outlier right now. They have the over priced at only -115, which gives us plenty of edge relative to the market. Let’s lock this one in over there before they catch up to the market.
Best Warriors-Kings Player Prop: De’Aaron Fox Over 1.5 3-Pointers -115 for 1 Unit at BetRivers
Warriors-Kings Game 1 NBA Player Prop | Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson O/U 21.5 Points
The Golden State Warriors struggled on the road this year. They went a pathetic 10-30 away from San Franciso this year, and Klay Thompson played a big role in their struggles. Thompson averaged 5.2 fewer points per game on the road than at home this season, a massive split, while shooting 2.4% worse from the floor. He scored only 17 points in his lone road start against the Kings’ standard lineup.
Thompson should regress with Andrew Wiggins back in the lineup. Thompson averaged 21.9 points per game in the regular season and 22.8 after the All-Star Break, but he averaged only 19.6 points when Wiggins suited up. Thompson only surpassed this number in 10 of the 31 starts he made alongside Wiggins as well. Although the Warriors may opt to ease Wiggins back into the rotation, his return is a meaningful hindrance to Thompson’s upside.
Although the playoffs mean Thompson should see an uptick in workload, he didn’t set the world on fire during last year’s playoffs. Thompson averaged only 19 points per game during the postseason in 2022, and he stayed under this number in all but five of his 22 playoff starts. Let’s fade Thompson in his first road playoff game of the year by buying the under at -102 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get $150 in bonus bets just for placing a $5 wager!
Best Warriors-Kings Player Prop: Klay Thompson Under 21.5 Points -102 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
