The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings will face off on Monday night for Game 2. The Kings scored a thrilling comeback win in Game 1, and now the pressure is on for the Warriors to find a way to win on the road. Bettors looking for a Warriors-Kings bet should note that the major books, FanDuel and DraftKings, have left too much value on the Stephen Curry and Trey Lyles player prop markets for Game 2. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Warriors-Kings Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Stephen Curry
Stephen Curry O/U 29.5 Points
Curry scored 30 points on 11-for-20 (55%) from the floor and 6-for-14 (42.8%) from the field in Game 1. He drew primary coverage from De’Aaron Fox, against whom he shot 40% from the field and 25% from deep. However, Curry managed to find ways to get away from Fox, and he made the most of those chances. Curry scored 17 points when facing primary coverage from Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk.
If Golden State steals a road game, it’ll likely be because of Stephen Curry. Despite the team’s dismal road record, Curry averaged 0.2 more points per game on the road in the regular season. That stands in stark contrast to Klay Thompson, who averaged 5.2 fewer points per game on the road, and Jordan Poole, who averaged 1.2 fewer points per game.
Curry should also benefit from playing the second game in three days in Sacramento’s Golden 1 Center. He averaged 29.7 points per game with one day off this season, more than what he averaged with no rest (28.7) or with two days of rest (26.8). Further, Curry scored more points in the second road game in three of his four playoff series in Golden State’s 2022 playoff run.
Both teams play at an aggressively fast pace, which should help Curry see the extra volume needed to cash the over. The Kings and Warriors played 211 total possessions in Game 1, more than the 203.5 they averaged in the regular season. Let’s tease this one up to 31.5, which is right under the 33 points per game Curry has averaged in 10 career starts against Fox. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get $150 in bonus bets just for placing a $5 wager!
Best Warriors-Kings Player Prop: Stephen Curry Over 31.5 Points +108 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Warriors-Kings Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Trey Lyles
Trey Lyles O/U 4.5 Rebounds
Golden State’s head coach, Steve Kerr, identified his team’s problem in Game 1 as defensive rebounding. He told reporters in a post-game interview that the Warriors gave up too many second-chance points. Golden State allowed Sacramento to rack up a whopping 17 offensive rebounds and lost the rebounding battle 50-41.
Expect Golden State to focus on controlling the glass a bit more in Game 2. That bodes poorly for Kings reserve Trey Lyles, who racked up two offensive boards and four defensive boards in Game 1. Lyles averaged only 4.1 rebounds per game in the regular season. Further, per the tracking stats, he had only six total rebounding chances, meaning he went an absurd 6-for-6. For some perspective, Domantas Sabonis hauled in a team-high 16 boards on 25 chances.
Lyles is a solid rebounder and owns a reasonable rebound rate of 13.7%. He averaged exactly 5 rebounds per game after the All-Star Break. However, Lyles is also a reserve player in Sacramento’s rotation and played only 18 minutes on Saturday. He’ll likely draw even fewer minutes if Keegan Murray can shoot effectively and stay in the game.
We’re also getting this prop at an off-market price. FanDuel has the under set to -111 (52.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it at -110 (52.4%). But we can buy the under at +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings Sportsbook currently. While we aren’t getting a ton of edge, we’re still getting enough to warrant laying a full unit on this one. Golden State controlled the glass in last year’s playoffs, so we know they can do it again. Let’s fade Lyles in this spot.
Best Warriors-Kings Player Prop: Trey Lyles Under 4.5 Rebounds +105 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
