The Golden State Warriors are on the brink of a first-round exit. If they can’t find a way to win Game 3 without Draymond Green, they’ll find themselves in a spot from which no team has come back to win a seven-game series. Fortunately for the Dubs, they are 33-8 in the Chase Center this year. FanDuel and DraftKings have left too much value on the Klay Thompson and De’Aaron Fox player prop markets for Game 3, respectively. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Kings-Warriors Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson O/U 23.5 Points
The Golden State Warriors absolutely must win this game. Falling into an 0-3 deficit would virtually end their season. With the series headed back to San Francisco, no player stands to benefit more than Klay Thompson. The veteran sharpshooter averaged 24.4 points per game, 5.2 more than he averaged on the road, on 44.7% from the field and 42.4% from the perimeter in the regular season. He also averaged 24.6 points per game without Draymond Green on 42.9% from the field and 47.4% from the perimeter.
Thompson has gotten off to a respectable start in this series. He scored 21 points in both games on 46.9% from the field and 41.7% from beyond the arc. Those are solid enough numbers for him in road games. Thompson has benefited from a faster-than-usual pace in this series, as the Warriors have averaged 104.3 possessions per game through Game 2, up from the 102.5 they averaged in the regular season. Although Thompson is no longer as efficient as he used to be, he should get the extra possessions he needs to do plenty of damage in Game 3.
Another split points to value here as well: wins and losses. Thompson averaged 24.8 points per game when the Warriors won this year but only 18.2 when they lost, a difference of 6.6. There is obviously a correlation versus causation argument here, as Thompson’s shooting was likely what propelled the Warriors to those wins (and led them to those losses), but it’s a noteworthy trend nonetheless. With Golden State favored by a 5.5-point margin, it’s fair for bettors to expect a higher-end performance from him in Game 3.
The Kings also struggled to defend opposing small forwards this year. Sacramento allowed the second-most points per game to the position (23.3) and the sixth-most through the last 30 games (22.7). Thompson spent 71% of his minutes at the three this season and is likelier to see even more action there with Draymond Green suspended. Expect more lineups featuring Stephen Curry and either Donte DiVincenzo or Jordan Poole alongside Thompson. Tease this number up to 25+ for odds of +115 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Kings-Warriors Player Prop: Klay Thompson 25+ Points +115 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Kings-Warriors Game 3 NBA Player Prop | De’Aaron Fox
De’Aaron Fox O/U 2.5 Turnovers
The Sacramento Kings, led by De’Aaron Fox, have performed admirably through two games. They have beaten the defending NBA champions twice in a row. Fox has led the team in scoring both times with 62 total points. The Kings have trusted him with a team-high usage rate of 31.3%. Through two games, Fox accounts for 32.9% of Sacramento’s field goals when on the floor but only 25% of their turnovers.
Those trends are unsustainable. In the regular season, Fox owned a usage rate of only 28.8% but a turnover rate of 28.2%. If Fox’s usage stays the same, which it likely will in a series-defining road playoff game, the math says his turnover rate should increase. Fox already turned the ball over three times in Game 1 and twice in Game 2, so that number doesn’t even have to tick up that much for him to go over this total.
The regular-season numbers point to value here as well. Fox averaged 2.5 turnovers per game. He finished with three or more turnovers in 35 of his 73 starts, or 47.9%, despite playing a smaller role than the one he has seen in the playoffs. Fox also averaged 2.7 turnovers per game against the Warriors this year, down slightly from the 2.9 he averaged against them throughout his career, and 2.5 per game when playing in the Chase Center.
The books have set the total for Fox’s turnovers at the right number (2.5), but they haven’t stacked the juice on the over by a wide enough margin. We can still buy it at -120 (54.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. If Fox’s turnover rate increases as the math suggests it should, his odds of coughing up the ball at least twice are more in the 65%-to-70% range. Readers who are yet to register at DraftKings can even get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Kings-Warriors Player Prop: De’Aaron Fox Over 2.5 Turnovers -125 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
