After starting down 0-2, the Golden State Warriors have evened the series back up before a pivotal Game 5 in the Golden 1 Center. The Sacramento Kings listed star point guard De’Aaron Fox as doubtful on Monday, but he told reporters that he expects to play on Tuesday. We’re getting plenty of value on Wednesday’s Game 5 at DraftKings on the player prop markets for Harrison Barnes and Stephen Curry. If you’re searching for more Warriors-Kings player props and other sharp plays for Game 5, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Warriors-Kings Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Harrison Barnes
Harrison Barnes O/U 0.5 Steals
After racking up an impressive three steals in both Game 1 and 2, Harrison Barnes couldn’t swipe anything in either Game 3 or 4. Fortunately for bettors, that’s led the sportsbooks to overcorrect the price on the over for this Game 5 player prop. The Golden State Warriors have allowed the fifth-most steals per game to their opponents (7.9). They have surrendered 0.4 more steals per game on the road than at home.
Barnes has managed to pester the Warriors defensively for quite some time. He has averaged 0.9 steals per game across 19 regular-season and playoff starts for the Sacramento Kings. This included an eight-game streak that dated back to early 2022 and only ended in Game 3 of this series. Barnes has stolen at least one ball in six of his seven games against the Warriors held in the Golden 1 Center while averaging 1.7 per game.
While Golden State’s struggles on the road are well known at this point, Barnes’ tendency to play more aggressively on defense at home isn’t. Barnes averaged 0.8 steals in the Golden 1 Center, 0.2 more than what he averaged on the road. Barnes recorded at least one steal in 26 of his 43 starts at home, good for a raw hit rate of 60.4%. With De’Aaron Fox banged up, look for the Kings to lean on their trusted veteran to earn some extra possessions.
The odds of Harrison Barnes getting at least one steal are set at -130 (56.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook, which is well below his raw hit rate in the Golden 1 Center both this year and when facing his former team, the Warriors. The books should probably have adjusted this number more for Sacramento’s home-court advantage, so let’s take advantage of their failure to do so. Bettors yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 moneyline wager!
Best Warriors-Kings Player Prop: Harrison Barnes Over 0.5 Steals -130 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Warriors-Kings Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Stephen Curry
Stephen Curry O/U 43.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
I’m much more of a numbers guy than a narratives guy, but this is a legacy game for Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Curry finally claimed his Finals MVP Award last season on the way to his fourth title with the team. While Curry doesn’t have anything left to prove, the 35-year-old veteran and his teammates have a chance to take the lead over LeBron James for the most NBA championships among active players, and a win on Wednesday could be the beginning of a record-breaking run. In contrast, a first-round exit would likely spell the beginning of the end for Curry and Golden State’s core.
Curry’s playoff numbers so far don’t point to much value on the over, but we’re playing it anyway. He is averaging 40.3 PRA per game in the playoffs and 37.5 in Sacramento. While he put together some solid regular-season games against the Kings, including a 47-point showing in November, he still is averaging only 42.5 PRA in their contests on the season. But just because those numbers don’t point to value on the over doesn’t mean there isn’t value here — it’s a question of which numbers you’re using.
Instead, we’re backing Curry because he has been the lone member of Golden State’s core to step up on the road. Curry averaged 0.2 more points, 0.9 more rebounds and the same number of assists when playing on the road compared to at home in the regular season, good for 42.3 PRA per game. His usage rate ticked up by 1.4%. If anybody propels the Warriors to victory tonight, it’s probably Curry. Further, the injury to De’Aaron Fox and the 22-point game from Jordan Poole in Game 5 could shuffle Sacramento’s defensive assignments in a manner that creates opportunities for Curry to exploit.
I’m breaking some of my rules by betting on Curry tonight. Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has the over priced at -109, but we’re buying the over at -115 via DraftKings Sportsbook anyway. This is a chance for Curry to go for the throat and put the Kings to bed with the series headed back to San Francisco for Game 6. Curry hasn’t given us a reason to doubt him so far this postseason, so let’s ride with him in a potentially legacy-defining spot.
Best Warriors-Kings Player Prop: Stephen Curry Over 43.5 PRA -115 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
