The NBA playoffs are quickly approaching. With several teams having already locked up their seeding, you must keep a close eye on which teams still have anything to play for — and which teams don’t. Bettors can still find plenty of value on tonight’s NBA player prop markets. The below plays for Kings-Mavericks and Knicks-Pacers stand out. DraftKings has left too much value on the Luka Doncic and Quentin Grimes player prop markets, respectively. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
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Best Kings-Mavericks NBA Player Prop: Luka Doncic
Luka Doncic O/U 32.5 Points
The Dallas Mavericks aren’t out of the playoff hunt — yet. They’ll need some help to get there, but they still have a 32.5% chance of securing a play-in slot. The Oklahoma City Thunder are their only real competition for a bid, and the Mavericks are only a half-game behind them. The Thunder have matchups with the Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies on the docket, while the Mavericks have the Kings, Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs left to play.
Although media reports have surfaced about the grim outlook in Dallas, Luka Doncic isn’t giving up. Doncic is averaging 31 points per game since returning from an injury in late March and beat this number in three of those seven games while averaging 38.8 minutes. Most of those games came on the road, but Doncic averages 4.4 more points per game in the American Airlines Center than outside of it. The Mavericks are also 6-point favorites, and the Doncic averages 5.1 more points per game in wins.
Doncic draws a matchup with the Sacramento Kings tonight. Sacramento has an 87.9% chance of finishing as the third seed. They’ll need some losses by the Grizzlies to improve their positioning. More importantly, the Kings just played the New Orleans Pelicans last night, and Sacramento’s games are 9-5 to the over when they play without rest. The Kings have played five games without rest since the All-Star Break, and four players went for 30-plus points in those contests — all of whom own lower usage rates than Doncic.
Best Thunder-Warriors Player Prop: Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points -110 for 0.55 Unit at DraftKings
Best Knicks-Pacers NBA Player Prop: Quentin Grimes
Quentin Grimes O/U 1.5 Turnovers
Unlike the Mavericks, the New York Knicks don’t have much on the line. They have a 99.6% chance of finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference and can’t get bumped to the play-in tournament. As a result, they’ll hold Jalen Brunson out for tonight’s game, and RJ Barrett picked up a questionable tag. Julius Randle remains out. That leaves their reserves with big shoes to fill.
The Knicks’ starting backcourt will likely consist of Miles McBride, Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, depending on who is available. With Randle and Brunson out, New York’s backcourt will have to pick up the slack as ball handlers, which they haven’t often done. Grimes is averaging only one turnover per game this year, but that number ticks up to 1.1 without Barrett and 1.3 without Brunson.
New York faces the Indiana Pacers tonight. The Pacers have already ruled out point guard Tyrese Haliburton as they keep an eye on the lottery. But despite Indiana’s limited roster, the Pacers have still forced the 17th-most turnovers per game from their opponents since the All-Star Break (13.1). Let’s fade Grimes at DraftKings Sportsbook with so many of his teammates likely sidelined. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 wager!
Best Knicks-Pacers Player Prop: Quentin Grimes Over 1.5 Turnovers +120 for 0.45 Unit at DraftKings
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