As the NBA playoffs approach, some teams are jockeying for playoff seeding, while others are looking to protect their lottery odds. With those goals in mind, bettors hunting out tonight’s best NBA player prop picks, especially for Heat-Knicks and Timberwolves-Suns, should tail the predictions below. Caesars and DraftKings have left too much value on the Bam Adebayo and Chris Paul player prop markets, respectively. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
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Best Heat-Knicks NBA Player Prop Tonight | Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo O/U 0.5 Blocks
The Miami Heat will line up against the New York Knicks in what’s likely a must-win game for them. At 40-36, they rank seventh in the Eastern Conference, a half-game behind the 40-35 Brooklyn Nets for the last guaranteed playoff spot. They have a two-game advantage over the Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors for the next two slots, but another loss to an Eastern Conference rival would seriously hurt their ability to make a run this offseason.
Miami’s precarious position makes it likely that they’ll feature their starters for plenty of minutes despite the lack of rest. Bam Adebayo, who usually averages 36.3 minutes per game on back-to-backs anyway, should continue to play plenty. Adebayo is averaging 1.1 blocks per game when playing without rest and 1 block per game since the All-Star Break, which points to some value on the over for this NBA player prop.
The matchup also points to value on the over. Adebayo has swatted at least one shot in each of his three games against the Knicks this year. This trend dates back to the end of the 2019-20 season. Although the Knicks don’t get blocked all that often — they rank a respectable 14th in blocks allowed per game (4.4) — Adebayo’s switchability makes him a matchup nightmare. He also steps up on the road and averages 0.26 more blocks per game when away from home.
Best Heat-Knicks Player Prop: Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Blocks (-135 for 1 Unit) at Caesars
Best Timberwolves-Suns NBA Player Prop Tonight | Chris Paul
Chris Paul O/U 8.5 Assists
The Phoenix Suns will get Kevin Durant back from a brief absence tonight, and he’ll join Devin Booker at the forefront of Phoenix’s offense. However, Chris Paul remains the primary ball handler in this offense, and he should benefit plenty from passing to two superstar shooters. Paul has played three games with both Durant and Booker and averaged 9.3 assists per contest. He went over this number in two of those games.
Paul has also usually stepped up in the assist column against Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Since joining the Suns, Paul is averaging 10.8 assists per game against Gobert. He beat this number in four of those five games. Further, Paul is averaging 10.5 assists per game against the Timberwolves since joining the Suns. He beat this number in five of those six games as well. Gobert’s ability to clog the paint and Minnesota’s pace-up philosophy has led Paul to routinely record above-average numbers.
The books aren’t quite sure what to do with this number. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the total set to 8.5 with the over priced at -144. FanDuel Sportsbook has the number set to 9.5 with the over priced at +104. Notably, Caesars Sportsbook has the total set to 8.5 with the over priced at only -125. DraftKings Sportsbook has an alternate line of 10+ set to +115. Let’s exploit both lines by laying 1.25 units of action across them. Readers yet to register there at DraftKings can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Timberwolves-Suns Player Prop: Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (-125 for 0.95 Unit) at Caesars
Best Timberwolves-Suns Ladder Bet: Chris Paul 10+ Assists (+115 for 0.3 Unit) at DraftKings
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