Although the NBA must now compete with March Madness for the attention of basketball fans, that just means a less competitive betting market. Bettors searching for tonight’s best NBA player prop picks, especially for Pacers-Celtics and Bucks-Jazz, should tail the predictions below. DraftKings and Caesars have left too much value on the Myles Turner and Grayson Allen player prop markets, respectively. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Best Pacers-Celtics NBA Player Prop Tonight | Myles Turner
Myles Turner O/U 1.5 Blocks
Although he is one of the NBA’s premier shot blockers, Myles Turner has routinely struggled to get the job done against the Boston Celtics. Turner has racked up five blocks in his four starts against the Celtics dating back to last year, which translates to only 1.3 blocks per game. Three of those came in one contest, and Turner had the benefit of overtime in that one. Turner has recorded just one block in 63.5 minutes of action against the Celtics this year.
The Celtics take smart, efficient shots and rarely get swatted. Boston allows the second-fewest blocks per game (3.9) and the fewest of any team when playing at home (3.5). They have also allowed the fewest blocks per game to centers this year (1.2). Although Walker Kessler just recorded three blocks against them last Saturday, neither Rudy Gobert nor Clint Capela picked up a single block in the week leading up to last Saturday.
Recent trends and Turner’s splits favor this play. Turner is averaging only two blocks per game since the All-Star Break, down from the 2.3 he had been averaging beforehand. He has racked up multiple blocks in only four of his 10 appearances since the pause. Turner is also averaging 0.05 fewer blocks per game on the road and only 2.1 blocks per game against Eastern Conference opponents.
Best Pacers-Celtics Player Prop: Myles Turner Under 1.5 Blocks (+100) at DraftKings
Best Bucks-Jazz NBA Player Prop Tonight | Grayson Allen
Grayson Allen O/U 10.5 Points
The books have a lot of faith in Grayson Allen tonight. With the Utah Jazz getting cooked from the perimeter lately, they have set the total for Allen’s 3-pointers prop up at 2.5, with the juice favoring the under. Over the last seven games, the Jazz have allowed the second-most above-the-break 3’s per game (11.7) and the most corner 3’s (5.4). However, they have left the total for his points prop at 10.5. The books are right to expect a solid game out of Allen from beyond the arc, but they should have adjusted his points prop, too.
We’re playing the points in case Allen only makes a pair of treys. Allen has gone for three or more triples in only 19 of his 66 games. In contrast, he has gone for at least 11 points 33 times, giving this play a raw hit rate of 50%. Allen is averaging only 10.6 points per game this year but has averaged 10.9 since the All-Star Break, beating this prop in six of his 12 starts.
Allen has also excelled against the Jazz. He racked up 13 points in 28 minutes while shooting just 1-for-2 from beyond the arc back in December. He is averaging 13.3 points per game against the Jazz since joining the Milwaukee Bucks and averaged 12.6 points per game against them with the Memphis Grizzlies. Yet the books feel comfortable stacking the juice on the under, so we’re getting this play at -103 via Caesars Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!
Best Bucks-Jazz Player Prop: Grayson Allen Over 10.5 Points (-103) at Caesars
