We have another closeout possibility tonight with Knicks-Pacers. And though last night’s Game 6 was a real letdown, Friday’s game should — should — be more competitive than a 45-point thrashing. Let’s get into the best NBA same-game parlay picks for Knicks-Pacers, targeting Aaron Nesmith and one of his opponents in this Caesars parlay with the help of OddsShopper’s parlay builder.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: Caesars SGP With Aaron Nesmith & More
Leg #1: Aaron Nesmith Under 4.5 Rebounds
The Knicks having a shot to book their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2000 is going to have a lot of people amped for their player overs. Conversely, the Pacers having their backs against the wall could do the same for those betting on Indiana players. But we’re smarter than that — we play the value, not the sentiment with our NBA same-game parlays.
And today we’re looking at a real humdinger in the value department. These are two plus-money props that are near or above 50% in expected win rate, which is an easy path to value. Now, it does make the total win rate a little lower than last night’s SGP that was over 30%, but 26% at 9.39% +EV is perfectly digestible.
Starting with Nesmith, his playing time and occasionally massive rebounding production have pushed his line up to 4.5 for Game 6. It makes sense; Nesmith had 12 boards in Game 4 and six each in Games 1 and 3. Mixed in there, though, is a one-rebound game and a four-rebound game, and he played 34 and 28 minutes in those.
Nesmith’s defensive versatility means he is going to play a lot in this closeout game. Plus, the Knicks are missing key pieces in the frontcourt and will continue to be without them for the foreseeable future. That is what is keeping this win rate a hair under 50%.
But it’s just a hair. At +108 odds, we’ll take a hair.
Nesmith averaged less than four boards a game in the regular season and has been under 4.5 in six of 11 in the playoffs. Individually, the under here is 2.7% +EV and fits in nicely with another plus-money play for a lucrative Knicks-Pacers SGP.
Leg #2: Alec Burks Under 1.5 3-Pointers
Burks has gotten the chance to chuck the last few games given the Knicks’ injury situation. Since New York started Miles McBride last game, Burks was the first guard off the bench; presumably that will be the case again tonight.
And to his credit, Burks took advantage, making five of eight 3-point attempts. He also made two 3’s in the two games previous. Those are the only three games all postseason where he played more than one minute, however.
It’s not that we’re projecting a reduction of his minutes. Chances are Burks is going to play over 20 again given what the Knicks are working with in the backcourt. Instead, the assumption is regression on his shots — attempts, makes, efficiency, all of it.
Burks was under 37% from the field this season and under 31% since joining the Knicks. He was over 37% from 3 (30.1% with the Knicks), but his shooting touch in general trends towards mediocre at best — definitely down from the 50% shooting on six 3’s per game.
OddsShopper is favoring the Burks to hit one 3 or none at a 53% rate, and the +100 odds on that make it one of the top individual props on the board (6.5% +EV). As part of a Knicks-Pacers parlay, it gets our total odds over +300 on Caesars and gets the total value of the parlay up near 10%.
NBA Parlay Today: +316 at Caesars Sportsbook
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