Things have gone a bit cold since we hit an MLB parlay a few days ago — two straight narrow losses in the NBA. So enough with bet365 for now (temporarily; we still love bet365). This time the move is a Caesars NBA parlay bet for Pacers-Celtics. Let’s get into the best NBA same-game parlay picks, targeting Jayson Tatum and one of his teammates with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: Caesars Parlay With Jayson Tatum & More
Leg #1: Jayson Tatum Under 5.5 Assists
Again, today’s NBA same-game parlay is a testament to why you should bet unders: Our guy Loughy has a great tutorial breaking down exactly the reasoning behind it. Basically, the public — us included — likes rooting for things rather than against things, and sportsbooks take advantage of that mindset. But we know to not let our sentiments get in the way of our money (at least when it comes to sports betting), and the best way to avoid it in an SGP is heading over to the Parlay Builder.
Today the Parlay Builder is finding slightly more modest SGPs in terms of expected value, but 6% +EV on a 32% win rate is pretty solid, nonetheless. Also, we’ll take the higher win expectancy after barely missing on our last two NBA same-game parlays.
Tatum is turning into a popular fade across OddsShopper’s tools — even coming off a 36-point game where he hit a dagger 3 in overtime.
The thing is, as good as Tatum has proven to be — and as prolific as his run of double-doubles in the playoffs is — there is an air of 1A-ness to him rather than true alpha No. 1, especially at the end of games. Jaylen Brown, meanwhile, seems totally up to the task of hitting clutch shots and stepping up down the stretch.
Tatum’s numbers are better, but I like Brown’s vibes more. Very scientific, I know.
Alas, today’s preferred Tatum fade comes in the form of his assists line of 5.5.
Tatum averaged 4.9 assists per game in the regular season but has kicked that up to 5.6 in the playoffs. He has, however, only logged six or more in five of 11 playoff games, and during the season he did so in 37.8% of games. Now, he does lead the Celtics in assists this postseason, but they really spread the wealth in that regard; three players are averaging at least four per game and six at least two.
Tatum dropped four assists in Game 1 on Tuesday, and OddsShopper gives him a 55% chance of falling short of 5.5 again. At -111 odds on the under against -123 True Odds, this prop is 4.8% +EV on its own.
Leg #2: Payton Pritchard Under 8.5 Points
Going under on Pritchard was the leg of our Tuesday Pacers-Celtics parlay that worked out for us — somehow it was Luke Kornet who managed to top us. That time we successfully went low on Pritchard’s assists, but opting for the under on his points tonight follows much of the same logic.
The Indiana guard rotation is strong defensively, save for Tyrese Haliburton, who is probably not going to get matched up with Pritchard all that often. Yes, Pritchard can get to 9 points in a heartbeat with just a few 3’s (and he did that in two of the last three games), but OddsShopper likes T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard to continue limiting Pritchard’s looks, as they did in Game 1 when he scored only 8 on four shot attempts.
There is danger in Pritchard’s efficiency — 73.2% true shooting over the last six games. However, the under has a 59% chance of hitting per OddsShopper’s model, and the -135 juice is still below the -142 True Odds, giving this bet a 2% edge at Caesars. All together, that gets the parlay to +230 odds for 6% +EV and a 32% expected win rate.
NBA Parlay Today: +230 at Caesars Sportsbook
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OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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