Having just watched a rousing edition of “the Celtics did just enough to not lose to a team they should beat by 25,” I can say confidently that either one of these Western Conference Finals teams is going to do a number on Boston should they make it to the Finals. Tonight we get to see which is readier and steadier to get there, and we have a nice little bet365 NBA parlay bet to kick off this Mavericks-Timberwolves series. Here are the best NBA same-game parlay picks, targeting a couple of role players with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: Bet365 Parlay With Mike Conley & More
Leg #1: Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists
We are sticking with the best formula for this parlay: One +EV play with a high win expectancy and shorter odds, one +EV with solid plus money and a slightly lower win percentage. And obviously, the move is all unders since that’s where the value usually is.
The Timberwolves seem to go as Mike Conley goes, as weird as that sounds. Aside from simply being a steadying presence who never panics, he has also been knocking down timely shots and being a strong secondary playmaker when Anthony Edwards needs some respite.
The thing is that Edwards hasn’t needed that much respite lately.
Over Conley’s last five games, he has only one in which he dropped at least seven assists: Game 4 of the Denver series. He has a couple games of six assists, but also a five and a four mixed in.
Keep in mind too that Conley averaged under six assists this season and through the prime of his career only averaged six on the dot. Ability-wise, Conley can dish with the best of them. Practically speaking, that’s not what he has been called to do, both recently and long-term.
Most important here, however, is the fact that we are getting positive expected value on a prop that has a win rate over 60%. That’s not often the case since the juice is usually out of control. Here, though, Conley’s -145 odds on his under is well below OddsShopper’s -157 True Odds, and thus this play is +EV by 3.1% — and the win percentage makes it a perfect parlay starter.
Leg #2: Derrick Jones Jr. Under 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Now for the value add: +115 odds on a bet with a near-50% expected win rate.
Derrick Jones Jr. is probably playing the best basketball he ever has and ever will play, and he’s doing it during a deep playoff run. We’re talking three straight games of at least 17 points, and he had only 10 of those in 76 games this year. Now, that is carrying most of this 12.5 points + rebounds + assists line, but Jones has also added an assist or two each game and as many as seven boards.
The minutes aren’t going to stop, either. The way Dallas is working its rotation, Jones should see close to 30 minutes again, which he has been every game since the playoff opener on April 21.
You know what also isn’t going to stop? The Timberwolves defensive ferocity. This team figured out how to slow down the NBA MVP and his potent offense last round, and with Jones getting ready to face a lethal defensive frontcourt, those scoring opportunities (and possibly rebounding opportunities) are going to take a major hit. Look no further than the T-Wolves locking up Michael Porter Jr. last series to see evidence of this.
The market is on the side of the under as well. Jones under 12.5 may only have a 48% expected win rate, but OddsShopper’s True Odds are only +107. Bet365’s +115 gives us a 4.0% edge while also not nuking the total expected win rate of the same-game parlay.
All together, these two bets make for a 7.13% +EV parlay at bet365, and the win rate of 29% is close enough to the 30% benchmark to make us feel good about our profitability.
NBA Parlay Today: +263 at bet365
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