Just when it looked like the Brooklyn Nets had turned a corner, superstar Kevin Durant went down with an injury. The Nets now must face the Phoenix Suns without him. The Suns have dealt with injuries of their own but could get Chris Paul back tonight. Bettors should target this Nets-Suns NBA player prop for Thursday night’s action — just enough value remains on the player prop markets for Ben Simmons. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
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Best Nets-Suns NBA Player Prop | Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons Prop O/U 7.5 Assists
With Durant sidelined, Simmons and Kyrie Irving will have to pick up the slack as ball handlers. Simmons has played two games without Durant this year. He finished with 13 assists against the Boston Celtics and 11 against the San Antonio Spurs. His performance against Boston is all the more impressive because the Celtics have allowed the fewest assists per game (22.6).
The betting markets just haven’t adjusted enough for Durant’s absence. Simmons has recorded eight or more assists in 14 of his 32 appearances this year, most of which came alongside Durant. He had recorded at least eight assists in six of the 10 games immediately preceding Durant’s injury as well. Simmons’ fluid usage in Brooklyn’s rotation made him a volatile player to back when Durant and Irving were healthy, but the Nets no longer have the luxury of depth.
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The tracking stats point to value here as well. Simmons recorded exactly 16 potential assists in each of his last two appearances. He has averaged 9.9 potential assists and 6.3 actual assists per game this year, good for a conversion rate of 63%. If his teammates can convert at least 60% of his potential assists against the Suns, Simmons should easily surpass this relatively low player prop total at his current pace. Getting Kyrie Irving back should help — Irving has cashed in 2.1 field goals off passes from Simmons per game.
Late-breaking injury news on Chris Paul could shift the odds for Thursday night’s Nets-Suns game. Fortunately, plenty of books have already posted NBA player prop markets for Brooklyn’s staters. FanDuel Sportsbook is charging -128 for those looking to tail this prop, by far the best deal on the market. Bettors should wager enough to profit a half-unit. Those who are new to FanDuel can secure $150 in bonus bets with the placement of a $5 wager!
Best NBA Nets-Suns Player Prop: Ben Simmons Over 7.5 Assists (-128 for 0.64 Unit) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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