For the last Wednesday slate of 2023, it’s time buckle down and home in our PrizePicks process to end the year with a bang! There are six games to navigate today, starting with 76ers-Magic in Orlando and no Joel Embiid. Bucks-Nets has the highest total on the night of 240.5, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed questionable, and if he’s ruled out, that total should come down a bit. We’ll close out the slate a bit early, as the late game between the Cavaliers and Mavericks tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET. Let’s get to the picks, starting with Jalen Brunson.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NBA picks for Wednesday!
NBA Player Predictions | Dec. 27
Jalen Brunson M/L 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)
Jalen Brunson is averaging 36 PRA on the season and 39.2 over his last five games, which is wonderful to see, but it’s the matchup that makes this a great play. The Knicks are 3-point road underdogs in Oklahoma City in a major pace-up spot against the Thunder, who rank sixth in pace. The Thunder are arguably the worst team in the NBA against guards, ranking bottom 3 in points, assists and rebounds allowed to the position. Yesterday’s column highlighted a Mike Conley more on points against the Thunder; he smashed that.
On the season, Brunson is neck and neck with Julius Randle in usage rate, but he’s had the ball much more over the last 10 games, averaging a 29.3% usage rate. In a pace-up spot with a healthy total and a great matchup, Brunson is poised to dominate tonight. More than his fantasy score works too when it gets posted.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Jalen Brunson More Than 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander M/L 55.5 Fantasy Score
We’ll stay with the Knicks-Thunder for the second pick today and highlight Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Tom Thibodeau teams are typically known for their defense, but the Knicks rank just 14th in defensive rating. A big reason is a massive drop over their last 10 games since Mitchell Robinson went down. In that span, they rank 30th in the NBA and have also moved up in pace to 10th. It’s wild to think one player can change a defensive scheme, but that’s the NBA for you.
Currently ranked fourth in the MVP ladder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 59.2 fantasy points per game over his last 10. The Knicks are allowing 4.8 steals to opposing guards, which ranks 25th in the last 10 games. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA with 2.8 steals per game, which counts for 3 fantasy points on PrizePicks. Smash the more button on him!
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander More Than 55.5 Fantasy Score
De’Anthony Melton M/L 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
For the final pick on today’s card, we are headed to Orlando for 76ers-Magic. De’Anthony Melton is averaging 19.3 PRA on the season and 21.4 on the road. However, Joel Embiid is out tonight, opening up tons of stats and usage to spread around the rest of the 76ers. The matchup against Orlando isn’t the best, as the Magic rank top 10 against guards on the season, but sometimes opportunity takes precedence over the matchup.
In four games this season without Embiid, Melton is averaging 26.3 PRA on just 32.8% shooting from the field. The key factor in those games is a massive usage bump, creating more opportunities. Melton jumps from a 17.4% to a 24.4% usage rate without Embiid. He is averaging 5.0 free-throw attempts and 9.0 3-point attempts in those games, all against good defenses.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: De‘Anthony Melton More Than 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.
