If you’ve got a case of the Mondays, you’ve come to the right place! We have an exciting 11-game slate in the NBA tonight, providing us with lots of options to choose from on PrizePicks. The night tips off at 7 p.m. ET in Cleveland between two of the best defenses in the NBA: Rockets and Cavaliers. That game has the lowest total on the night at just 215. There are three games with totals over 246, including Clippers-Pacers in Indiana. Let’s start our PrizePicks card tonight with James Harden.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NBA picks for Monday!
NBA Player Predictions | Dec. 18
James Harden M/L 39.0 Fantasy Score
James Harden is in a major pace-up spot and in a great position to surpass his fantasy score projection tonight. The Clippers are 3-point road favorites in Indiana against the Pacers, who rank first in pace and 28th in defensive rating, giving the game a healthy total of 246. James Harden has been the best player on the Clippers over their last 10 games, sporting a team-high 16.4 net rating.
Since Thanksgiving, Harden is averaging 1.18 fantasy points per minute and leads the team with a 31.7 assist percentage. He’s thrived in these uptempo games in the past and is averaging 40.8 fantasy points over his last 15 games.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: James Harden More Than 39.0 Fantasy Score
Dejounte Murray M/L 37.0 Fantasy Score
Dejounte Murray gets a dream matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who are just five losses away from setting a new NBA record for consecutive losses. The Hawks have the second-highest implied team total on the night at 128.5 and are 11-point home favorites. The Pistons rank 26th in defensive rating and 22nd in opponent points in the paint and will be without Jalen Duren again tonight, their best defender in the paint. They rank 29th in turnovers and bottom 3 in opponent blocks and steals on the season.
Meanwhile, the Hawks will play another game without Jalen Johnson and have Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic all listed as questionable. Murray is averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute at home and is up to 1.11 in the last two weeks. He’s averaging 35.5 minutes per game at home this season. If Capela, Hunter and/or Bogdanovic were to miss this game, Murray would get more opportunities in every category, making this an even better play.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Dejounte Murray More Than 37.0 Fantasy Score
Jarrett Allen M/L 14.5 Points
Jarrett Allen has had some great games of late without Evan Mobley on the court, creating a projection of 14.5 points. Simply put, it’s too high and should get bumped down before tip-off. Allen is averaging 13.0 points per game and 13.6 at home this season. Mobley and Darius Garland are both out tonight, creating more opportunities for points. However, it’s not going to come from Allen in this matchup against Houston.
The Rockets rank 28th in pace and have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. More specifically, they allow the third-fewest points in the paint, which is where Allen gets all of his scoring. There is a reason Allen shoots 68.4% from the field. Most of his shots are dunks or within 10 feet of the basket. Even with the increased opportunities, this is a pace-down spot and a tough matchup, indicated by the lowest total of the day at 215 points. The books agree with me here, as OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool shows us that the juice is heavy on the under, and this play has -130 true odds and a 57% expected win rate.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Jarrett Allen Less Than 14.5 Points
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