Yesterday was profitable, hitting on both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and De’Anthony Melton but just missing on Jalen Brunson. However, if you placed a few entries with Brunson’s fantasy score, then you had a really nice day. Thursday brings us an eight-game slate, tipping off in Boston with the Celtics as 17-point favorites against the Pistons, who set a new single-season record for most consecutive losses on Tuesday with 27. Pacers-Bulls have the highest total of 241.5, with the closest spread of 1.5 points. We’ll close out the evening with Hornets-Lakers from Los Angeles at 10:30 PM ET.
Let’s get tonight’s PrizePicks NBA player predictions, starting with Jerami Grant.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NBA picks for Thursday!
NBA Player Predictions | Dec. 28
Jerami Grant M/L 20.5 Points
Jerami Grant comes into this game averaging 22.0 points and shooting a career-best 41.3% from three-point range. Tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against the Spurs, who rank 30th against forwards. The Spurs allow the most points and 3-pointers to the position, and it’s not close, as the 13 threes allowed are 6.5 more than the 7.5 the Pacers allow. The Spurs rank 25th in defensive rating and third in pace. Not only is this a great matchup, but we are also getting good value on this play too!
OddsShopper tells us that the over on 20.5 is juiced between -120 and -140, while some books have this at 21.5. In a pace-up spot with a good matchup and the odds in our favor, more than is the play here.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Jerami Grant More Than 20.5 Points
Luka Doncic M/L 37.5 Points
Editor’s note: Luka Doncic has been ruled OUT tonight.
Luka Doncic is currently third in the NBA MVP ladder, averaging 33.7 points per game. In 13 games without Kyrie Irving, he’s averaging 35.1 points and has had 38 or more in six of those games. His average dips to 32.9 points on the road and to 28.3 points with no rest. The Mavericks played lost last night against Cleveland, making tonight’s game the second leg of a back-to-back. Considering the situation isn’t good, and tonight’s matchup is a tough one against the best defense in the NBA (Minnesota), I’m going less than, and OddsShopper’s Positive EV tool agrees with me.
As you see from this graphic, all operators are juiced to the under between -120 and -166, while FanDuel and BetRivers have this projection at 36.5. This is the highest-rated NBA player on the board right now with -135 true odds and a 57% xWIN rate. It will get bumped down.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Luka Doncic Less Than 37.5 Points
DeMar DeRozan M/L 33.5 Points + Assists
For the final pick on today’s card, we are headed to Chicago for the highest total on the night. The Bulls are in a major pace-up spot against the Pacers, who rank 28th in defense and allow the second most points in the NBA. Bruce Brown will miss tonight’s game for Indiana while Nikola Vucevic is out for Chicago. This is a great matchup for DeMar DeRozan, and with Andre Drummond likely starting for Vucevic, we’ll see DeRozan get even more opportunities tonight.
DeRozan is averaging 27.9 points + assists on the season, and in 13 games without Zach LaVine, he’s at 30.7. Without Vucevic also off the court, he gets a 2% bump in assist percentage and a 2% bump in usage rating. He’s averaging two more points at home than on the road, and in the last 10 games, he’s averaging 12.9 potential assists and playing 38.9 minutes per game.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: DeMar DeRozan More Than 33.5 Points + Assists
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.
