It’s Flex Friday on PrizePicks, and that means we get a protected play up to $20. Remember, you need to go to your promotions tab and opt into the protected play for it to activate. We have a massive 14-game slate with four game totals over 240 tonight, including Hawks-Pacers at a new NBA high of 263. We will close out a busy night of basketball at 10 p.m. ET in Sacramento with the Raptors visiting the Kings as 5-point underdogs. I’m leading tonight’s PrizePicks NBA card with Kristaps Porzingis.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best picks for Jan. 5!
NBA Player Predictions | January 5
Kristaps Porzingis M/L 22.5 Points
Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 20.6 points per game and 27.0 over his last five. The Celtics are 10-point home favorites over the 16-19 Jazz, who have won three straight. This game could be closer than the spread indicates, as Utah is the healthiest it’s been in weeks. Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George and Walker Kessler are all back after missing significant time. The Jazz have the third-best net rating in the NBA over the last five games and should keep this game close enough for Porzingis to get his full run of 31 minutes tonight.
This is a favorable matchup for Porzingis, as the Jazz are allowing the most points and 3-pointers to centers on the season. This is a pace-up spot for the Celtics and a healthy 240 total, while this game has sneaky shootout potential written all over it.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Kristaps Porzingis More Than 22.5 Points
Clint Capela M/L 22.5 Points + Rebounds
Clint Capela is averaging 22.8 points + rebounds on the season and has played really well over his last 10 games. In that stretch, he has recorded six double-doubles and is averaging 26.1 points + rebounds. Tonight he gets to add to those numbers with a favorable matchup against Indiana. The Pacers allow the most points in the paint and are the second-worst rebounding team in the NBA.
Capela is 10th in the NBA with 17 rebound chances per game and has increased that number to 18.7 over his last 10. Even with Jalen Johnson back in the mix, Capela’s numbers have gone up, grabbing 14.3 rebounds in the last three games. The total for this game opened at 263, an NBA record. In addition, OddsShopper tells us there is good value on more than 22.5, with other books juiced to the over and some listing this projection at 23.5.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Clint Capela Less More 22.5 Points + Rebounds
Anthony Davis M/L 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)
Anthony Davis has been terrific this year, averaging 40.4 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) and 43.0 PRA in 17 games at home. These averages are both below the projection, but the Lakers are 4-point favorites over the Grizzlies, who really struggle against bigs. That has not changed in the seven games with Ja Morant in the lineup. Memphis ranks 27th in opponent rebounds and 26th in opponent points allowed to centers. Davis has played more than 38 minutes eight times in his last 14 games and played 43 in Wednesday’s matchup with Miami.
Taking a look at OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool, we see that all other operators are juiced to the over of 45.5 PRA, while FanDuel has this at 46.5. Davis get’s a 2% usage bump without D’Angelo Russell, who is doubtful to play tonight, another added bonus for the more than play.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Anthony Davis More Than 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.
