With the NBA taking a break on Thanksgiving, they’re jamming in a massive 14-game slate tonight! Eight of those games have totals over 230, including the Hornets-Wizards matchup, which leads the way with a 242.5 total. 11 teams are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, including the Hawks and Pacers, who combined for a season-high 309 points last night.
Picking the right projections can be a tough task, but with the help of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and some diligent research, we have you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NBA picks and player projections for Wednesday, starting with LaMelo Ball.
PrizePicks NBA Player Predictions | Nov. 22
LaMelo Ball M/L 37.5 Points + Assists
LaMelo Ball faces a favorable matchup against the Wizards in a game boasting the highest total of the night. Despite averaging 33.6 points + assists for the season, I’m leaning towards more than 37.5 tonight. The Wizards rank 30th and 29th in opponent assists and points on the season, respectively, and run at the second fastest pace.
Ball ranks fifth in the NBA with 14.7 potential assists per game and 11th in field goal attempts with 20.1. However, since the return of Miles Bridges from suspension, Ball’s performance has soared. Over the last five games, he leads the NBA in points with an average of 33.1 per game and in field goal attempts with 24.6 per game. Even excluding his huge 36-point performance in an overtime win against Boston, he still maintains an impressive average of 32.4 points per game in the previous four.
Ball is on a heater that won’t last forever, but expect it to continue tonight against a Wizards team that can’t play defense.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: LaMelo Ball More Than 37.5 Points + Assists
Gordon Hayward M/L 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
Last week, I leaned towards more than on this prop in the Hornets-Wizards game. However, with Miles Bridges back in action for the Hornets, my stance has shifted to less than today. Despite Gordon Hayward‘s season average of 9.5, his recent performance over the last five games has dipped to 7.4, thanks to the return of Bridges.
Hayward boasts an 8.4% rebound rate and a 19.6% assist rate when Bridges is off the court. However, alongside Bridges, these numbers drop to 6.6% and 10.7%, respectively.
After utilizing OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool, I saw that all other operators heavily favor less than 9.5. Despite the favorable matchup, Hayward is expected to fall short of 9.5 rebounds + assists due to a decrease in his opportunities with Bridges back in action.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Gordon Hayward Less Than 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
Zion Williamson M/L 4.5 Assists
The Pelicans are hosting the Kings tonight as 2-point favorites in a favorable pace-up spot for Zion Williamson. The Kings rank 25th in opponent assists allowed and 22nd in opponent field goal percentage. Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in pace, giving this game a juicy 237 total.
Williamson is averaging 4.5 assists per game this season, and in five games without C.J. McCollum, he’s averaging an even 5.0, including a five-assist effort against this same Kings team just two days ago. Williamson is also averaging 9.3 potential assists and a 30.2 usage rate without McCollum this season.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Zion Williamson More Than 4.5 Assists
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.
