Another profitable day in the NBA streets, going 2-for-3 – hitting on both Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Duren but missing on Josh Giddey, who played just 22 minutes in a game that ended with 270 points. Thursday brings more opportunities to grow our bankroll, but we have just two games to choose from. Spurs-Bucks will kick off the double-header with a 249 total and a 9-point spread in favor of Milwaukee, which is playing the second leg of a back-to-back. In the night cap, we have a 235 total in San Francisco for Nuggets-Warriors. Let’s get to the the best PrizePicks NBA plays, starting with Nikola Jokic.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best picks for Jan. 4!
NBA Player Predictions | January 4
Nicola Jokic M/L 34.5 Points + Assists
Nikola Jokic is averaging 34.8 points + assists on the season and 37 in the two previous matchups against the Warriors this season. The Warriors are struggling this season and have tried many different starting lineups to see if something will stick, but it hasn’t as they stand at 16-17 and 11th in the West. Tonight, we’ll see Trayce Jackson-Davis at center for the Warriors, and Jokic should dominate the rookie from Indiana with no problem.
The Warriors rank 22nd in defensive rating and 17th in points allowed over their last 10 games without Draymond Green. Not only does this play sound good, but it has good value too. All other operators have this projection at 35.5 so we’ll likely see this get bumped mid-morning.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Nikola Jokic More Than 34.5 Points + Assists
Stephen Curry M/L 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Stephen Curry had a huge game on Tuesday, scoring 36 points on 60% shooting against the Orlando Magic. However, it’s going to be tough to replicate that tonight against Denver. The Nuggets rank eighth in defensive rating and 29th in pace, not good for opposing offenses or Steph Curry. Steph averaged just 28 PRA in the two matchups with Denver this season and averages 36.6 PRA on the season.
Early odds across the books are juiced to the under, so right now, we are getting some good value on less than for Curry. Denver allows just 11.2 three-pointers a game to opponents, which ranks fifth best in the NBA. In order for Steph to score 25+ points on a given night, he relies heavily on hitting threes, as he averages 4.7 3-pointers per game. If he has a hard time connecting from deep, he’s not likely to get to 38 PRA.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Stephen Curry Less Than 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Victor Wembanyama M/L 2.5 Assists
Victor Wembanyama averages 2.9 assists on 5.3 potential assists this season. However, over his last 10 games, he’s converting 4 assists on 5.7 potential assists. The Spurs are 9.5-point road underdogs against the Bucks with a healthy 249 game total. This could end in a blowout, as a lot of Spurs’ games do, but the Bucks rank 15th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and these teams rank 1 and 2 in pace in that stretch.
Taking a look at OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool, we see that all other operators are heavy on the over of 2.5 assists, with odds ranging from -135 to -166. I’m banking on Wembanyama getting to three assists tonight.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Victor Wembanyama More Than 2.5 Assists
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.
